Unveiling the Future of Football: A Beginner’s Guide to the 2024 NFL Draft
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Every year, at the same time, something moves beneath the football world.
Welcome back to the NFL Draft.
The 2024 NFL Draft, which will be streamed live from Detroit on Thursday night, will feature one of the best and most competitive quarterback classes in recent memory. Still, it is not all. Not even close. There are a ton of talented positions in this draft, and trade rumors have been circulating for months. Will four quarterbacks be selected in the first four picks? Who is the leading candidate? Which teams plan to exchange players? Who is going to hold fast?
Let’s get you caught up.
Who has the No. 1 pick in the draft?
The Panthers selected Alabama quarterback Bryce Young with the first overall pick in the 2023 draft, which they acquired from Chicago in March of last year in exchange for picks 9 and 61. Additionally, Carolina sent wide receiver DJ Moore, a 2025 second-round pick, and a first-round pick in 2024. But they finished the league’s poorest record (2-15) in Young’s first season, which meant Chicago had their first pick back.
The Bears will be able to add something with it that they have not had since the Super Bowl era: a reliable quarterback with the ability to alter the course of a game.
Only one season removed from having the poorest record in the league, Chicago made significant progress in 2023. The Bears have unearthed a terrific cornerback in Jaylon Johnson, established toughness along the offensive line through draft selection, and now seem ready to accept a rookie quarterback. (Which one, specifically? We will address that soon.)
This spring, Bears general manager Ryan Poles made it clear where he wanted to go with the selection when he resolved a difficult situation by dealing Pittsburgh Steelers first-round choice Justin Fields in exchange for a sixth-round pick in 2021. The Bears certainly seem to be one quarterback away from having a squad good enough to make the playoffs, as they did with seven wins a year ago, including four in their last six games. This week, we will see if they can land one.
Who has the most (and the fewest) picks in the NFL Draft?
The most draft capital is in Arizona. In addition, the Cardinals are the team with the best chance to advance significantly in this draft. They not only have 11 selections overall, but an astounding seven of them are in the top 104, with three of them ranking in the top 40. Arizona, which is still winning with quarterback Kyler Murray, may also be in line to receive a significant trade haul from a club that wishes to advance and needs a quarterback. (In the first round, the Cardinals own choice No. 4.)
Arizona has the opportunity to be aggressive offensively while continuing to add solid depth to a young team that is already very promising, much like the Houston Texans did a year ago. GM Monti Ossenfort has a great opportunity.
On the other hand, this year’s draft capital belongs to the Cleveland Browns the least. They will not select until No. 54 and are still bearing the consequences of their 2022 blockbuster Deshaun Watson trade, as Houston now owns Cleveland’s first-round position. This year, the Browns only had two selections in the top 150.
Who will be the No. 1 pick in the draft?
Caleb Williams, the quarterback for USC, is a good choice. Williams, a 6-foot-1, 215-pound Washington, D.C. native, is the face of college football’s NIL era right now. A multimillionaire who is not afraid to brag about it, he possesses a unique blend of arm talent, pocket movement, and spatial awareness. Although he is a mobile quarterback in the pocket, his eyes are constantly up, which causes many of his huge plays to go awry. He is the best in this class at keeping plays alive as receivers reset.
From the time he set foot on the collegiate field, Williams made an impact. He possesses the same kind of improvisational talent that Patrick Mahomes does.
There are a lot of great quarterbacks in this class, especially the top players, but Williams stands out for other reasons outside his knack for pulling tricks out of his hat. It is his intelligence while handling the ball. His 33 career fumbles indicate that he does a lot of things at risk, yet over the course of more than 1,000 college attempts, his touchdown to interception ratio was 93 to 14.
The main issues right now are who goes No. 2, and then who goes No. 3, since Williams is pretty much guaranteed to start at No. 1. The obvious choices are Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy, LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels, and North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye, but Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. is a wild card. Malik Nabers, WR for LSU, may also be.
Because there are so many clubs at the top (and throughout) that need quarterbacks, we should expect to see a rush on quarterbacks in the first four picks. However, Harrison and Nabers will both rank as top-three prospects on many NFL boards.
Will there be trades?
Oh, yeah.
The exact kind of move that indicates a team is prepared to move up in the draft for a quarterback is the Minnesota Vikings’ acquisition of an extra first-round pick from Houston after losing quarterback Kirk Cousins to the Atlanta Falcons in free agency. In Round 1, Minnesota is ranked No. 11 and No. 23.
But how far can the Vikings climb? The teams who have the first, second, and third picks in the draft are the Commanders, the Patriots, and the Bears, who all require quarterbacks. Of those three teams, New England is the strongest option for a trade down, but Eliot Wolf, the team’s new top executive, is a product of the Green Bay school of not starting a rebuild without a quarterback. To usher in the post-Bill Belichick era, owner Robert Kraft also seems eager for a new star passer.
At No. 4, Arizona might be the club trying to reposition itself, but none of those two outcomes is truly assured. The Cardinals already have a wealth of draft picks, therefore they do not need a quarterback. It is feasible that the Cardinals hold their current position and choose a top receiver (Harrison or Nabers), which would give Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers the advantage in a trade-down at No. 5.
As a squad trying to get better, the Broncos might enter the race. A quarterback is still needed by the Raiders. It is difficult to imagine any of the top four quarterback prospects—Maye, Williams, Daniels, and McCarthy—lasting into the top five selections, regardless of what transpires.
What is the current draft order?
The Round 1 draft order for Thursday night, as of April 23:
You can get the complete draft order, with all 257 scheduled picks, here. A complete seven-round mock draft was issued last week by Dane Brugler of The Athletic for those who wish to delve even further.
Prospects to watch in the 2024 NFL Draft
“The Beast,” a scouting guide by Dane Brugler, is the best resource for practically every name you will hear drafted this year. Here are ten noteworthy prospects to keep an eye on in addition to quarterbacks.
1. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Harrison’s best NFL comparison may be his Hall of Fame father, Marvin Harrison, but the son is bigger and stronger. Harrison is one of the most polished receiving prospects we have seen in at least ten years. Harrison demonstrated his extraordinary ability to track off-target throws throughout his two years as a starter for the Buckeyes. Marvin Harrison Jr. can run on any route. He can succeed in the air, at the top of his route, and at the line of scrimmage. He can play any receiver position in any offense. He has steady, powerful hands.
He came into Ohio State’s program with a big-time rep, saw more garbage coverage than any other receiver in the country, and yet occasionally carried the offense for the Buckeyes. Having been a professional athlete in college, he will be primed and ready to go on Day 1.
2. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
There will be teams where Nabers is ranked higher than Harrison; this is not meant as a slight to Harrison, but rather as recognition of Nabers’ superior ability. The 6-foot, 199-pound lightning bolt caught 189 passes for 3,003 yards and 21 touchdowns in his three years at LSU. Nabers was essentially the sponsor of Daniels’ Heisman run from last season. The receiver’s explosiveness at the line of scrimmage and second-level acceleration from a dead stop are exceptional qualities.
Nabers ran a 4.38-second 40-yard sprint and recorded a 42-inch vertical jump on LSU’s pro day. Although Nabers is still only 20 years old, he already possesses Harrison’s strength and stature, but his explosive speed and consistency as a route runner make him a promising star in the making.
Washington WR Rome Odunze is also no slouch. Expect him to be in the top 10 along with Harrison and Nabers.
3. Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Bowers was a three-year dynamo at Georgia as a receiver and blocker, and he was the model tight end of today. Bowers was one of the few collegiate tight ends who was physically prepared for the NFL as a true freshman. He is able to block both in and out of line. With steady, strong hands, he can win in the slot, outmaneuver some safeties and corners in press, and get to almost anything in the air.
Great route runner with genuine space speed, Bowers’ post-catch play is more akin to that of a running back or receiver than a typical tight end.
Bowers is prepared to contribute significantly to any offense at a crucial position. Tight ends are, of course, often not as valuable in the draft as receivers are, so a team in the teens might be getting a real steal.
4. Graham Barton, OL, Duke
This is a talented group of offensive linemen with depth at the bottom and prospects like Olu Fashanu and Joe Alt at the top of the draft class. However, there are also several versatile lineman with bright careers ahead of them, and Barton may be one of the best.
After enrolling at Duke as a center, he was named a freshman All-America player in 2020. He later switched to left tackle, where he was named to the second team and made 32 consecutive starts outside. Barton is an uncommon five-position candidate for an offensive line since he is athletic and big enough to do whatever he wants up front. He may be the best center in the group.
5. Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
There is a lot of emphasis on attack in this draft, and there may be a heated discussion about the best defender until Thursday night.
In this draft, Arnold, an Alabama sophomore in his third year, has a strong argument to be the most complete cornerback—and possibly the most complete defender overall. As a lockdown corner for the Tide last season, Arnold shown excellent footwork and overall intelligence. He is a strong, courageous tackler in space. He is a really smart player with a ton of football character and the swagger required to fill the role.
We will see if he finishes first overall or if Dallas Turner, Arnold’s teammate from Alabama and a super-athlete, can take that title. Quinyon Mitchell of Toledo has all the physical attributes of Arnold, but he plays faster, therefore it is not a certain that Arnold will be selected as the first cornerback.
6. Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
Almost never taking a mistake step throughout a route, McConkey makes his outside releases with a hiccup. He is the most QB-friendly wide receiver in a draft class full of them. Using route finesse to set up and beat bigger, faster defenders, McConkey is one of this draft’s most skillful athletes. He is a full-body route runner who works back to the ball and resets if his quarterback is having difficulties.
He is the best friend of a quarterback. Since there are so many rookie quarterbacks in the NFL right now and will soon be more, dependable targets like McConkey are extremely valuable.
7. Mike Sainristil, DB, Michigan
Sainristil is the most distinctive prospect from Michigan’s national championship-winning squad from the previous season. He was a two-time captain and a Wolverine who played offense, defense, and special teams. After three years at wide receiver, he played the final two in the secondary.
Sainristil played a variety of positions in 2023 as a member of the nation’s best defense, including nickel, safety, outside corner, and active box play. Sainristil is a fearless presence who is usually in the right place and seems to be around the football. He is incredibly intelligent and is likely the most physically assured defensive back in the class.
The turnaround at Michigan towards the end of Harbaugh’s career was the subject of much discussion. Sainristil was the player who contributed the most to altering the locker room culture. He will improve others, and whichever team signs him will soon realize that.
8. Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
After a remarkable collegiate career that saw him move from a five-star prospect who struggled for three years at Auburn to a polished leader at Oregon for the last two years, Nix enters the draft. His performances at the two stops were remarkably different from one another. Nix passed for over 8,000 yards and 74 touchdowns against just 10 interceptions in his two years at Oregon.
In an up-tempo, college-style system, Nix completed more than 77 percent of his passes last year, albeit most of them were underneath throws. Nix is competent in almost everything, yet he lacks any really exceptional qualities. Do not be shocked if he draws attention if he is drafted by a team that has a strong offensive line and a strong running game.
9. Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
the NFL Draft’s most divisive athlete in 2024. This year, Penix’s draft stock range has been talked about, starting in Round 1 and ending at the bottom of Round 3. While it can be challenging to gather sufficient information to assess a player such as McCarthy, who led a team that frequently led, our cup runneth over with Penix, who completed approximately 1,700 college passes in six years of collegiate competition.
Penix, who is almost 24 years old and has already experienced several season-ending injuries, has written a story of tenacity and fortitude.
Possessing the most beautiful deep ball in the nation, Penix amassed over 13,000 yards in career passing as a collegiate player. But there are some restrictions. Penix is a stiff athlete with little body twitch, so the injuries are not the only thing to be concerned about. He is not a reliable thrower and was frequently bailed out by the top three wide receivers in college football. He lacks confidence when throwing the ball over the middle and misses layups.
But wager against him at your own peril. You should not test his mental toughness.
10. Jackson Powers-Johnson, OC, Oregon
The top center in college football, the Rimington Trophy, is often awarded to a seasoned player who has held the position for some time. not the previous campaign. At the age of twenty, Powers-Johnson emerged victorious, showcasing his exceptional athleticism as a protector and his ability to be a formidable force in the run game. Early in his Oregon career, Powers-Johnson played guard and defensive tackle on the side. However, he switched to center last season and became the best center in college football and a unanimous All-American. At the Senior Bowl in February, he absolutely dominated senior competition.
There is a real experience element at play here, which has led to some evaluators pulling back on Powers-Johnson. However, Powers-Johnson is a first-round talent, and many teams are in need of a fresh prospect to snap the ball. Where is he going?
(Illustration: Eamonn Dalton / The Athletic; photos of Drake Maye, Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr.: Rich Schultz / Getty Images; Joe Robbins / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images; Ric Tapia / Getty Images)