From First Round to Free Fall: The Unpredictable Fate of NFL Draft Prospects

Undervalued Prospects in the NFL?

Edge rushers with diminishing stock

I asked our NFL weekly writer, Jacob Robinson, a straightforward question ahead of this month’s NFL Draft: “Why are guys who overproduced in college getting less credit in the NFL Draft?”We are going to examine three edge rushers today. (Note: Today’s Scoop City featured this part originally.)

1. Colorado State DE Mohamed Kamara: Jayna With 1.08 sacks per game, Kamara finished fourth in the FBS last season. She also finished in the top 10 for tackles for loss. He had one of the most productive seasons in the team’s history in his sixth year of eligibility, winning conference defensive player of the year.

Jacob: His measurables (6 feet 1, 248 pounds, 32 3/8-inch arms) are not what scouts expect at the position, despite his strong history. Even so, Kamara’s dynamic athleticism, which is evident here, should earn him a spot on the roster. I have seen the 49ers make fun of him in the fourth round.

2. DE Iowan Joe Evans: JaynaWith Evans playing a key role, Iowa’s defense finished last season with the highest yards per play allowed (4.08) in the FBS. Leading an exceptional defense in TFLs, QB pressures, and sacks was the former walk-on. With 28 career sacks, Evans is fourth in Iowa history. Evans had four sacks in two games in 2023.

Jacob: Evans did not receive an invitation to the combine, but he made an impression on scouts during Iowa’s pro day, which was attended by nearly all 32 clubs. It will need a 41.5-inch vertical leap, a 4.67-second 40-yard sprint, and 24 repetitions of 225 pounds. One catch: Evans pitched while playing fullback in order to sign with an NFL franchise. He remarked, “My pitch is really that I can play anyplace.” I am cheering him on.

3. James Madison’s DE Jalen Green: Jayna: Green helped James Madison go 9-0 in 2023 before missing the final three games due to a knee injury, but he still finished the season with 21 TFLs and 15.5 sacks, earning him a spot on The Athletic’s first-team All-America roster. Green’s standout senior season included two forced fumbles and a pick-six in an eight-point victory over South Alabama.

Jacob: It appears like Green may not hear his name called given his position as edge No. 46 in Dane Brugler’s draft preview, “The Beast.” Given Green’s diminutive stature (6-1, 245 pounds) in comparison to offensive lineman in the NFL, scouts find it hard to believe that breakout season will carry over to the professional ranks. If not, he should sign with a team while he is still in camp.

Mandel’s E-mail

What constitutes a productive spring scrimmage?

How do coaches assess the quality of their team’s spring scrimmage? In the event that one side prevails, the other will fail. Does that basically mean ignoring the results and assessing each player’s technique while watching the All-22 play-by-play? — Bryan B.

Compared to those of us watching on TV or in the stadium, the coaches are undoubtedly more skilled at it. I watch a lot of spring games, and usually the only thing I can learn is how terrific the quarterback looks. Alternatively, a highlight-worthy play by a defensive back or receiver might be seen.

However, the coaches can review the tape to evaluate who performed well and who made mistakes because they are aware of the play that was called on every snap. Additionally, they observe closely throughout practice to identify who moves effectively, who reacts too slowly, etc.

Scrimmages are mostly a chance for certain guys to “pop.” It is difficult for the average layman to determine how much of a defensive lineman’s rush into the backfield was due to him and how much was due to subpar blocking by the offensive line. However, the athlete still made a significant play, so that is something. I first became aware of players like Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Trevor Lawrence, Garrett Wilson, Malik Hooker, Kool Aid McKinstry, and others during the spring games.

This coming Saturday, the Ohio State spring game will air on Fox at noon ET, while Alabama’s will air on ESPN at 4 p.m. This signals the official start of the 2024 college football season.

Read the full mailbag here.

Recruiting Power Rankings

largest ascents and descents

Based on recruiting potential, our excellent recruiting team yesterday graded every power-conference program (along with Oregon State and Washington State) from 1 to 70. Naturally, Georgia is ranked first, but there was a lot of movement in the rankings due to changes brought about by realignment, the coaching carousel, NIL, and the extended CFP. Here are the top risers and decliners in the field of recruitment.

Kansas surged from 68th to 52nd place in the rankings, the highest move of any program. The Jayhawks, under coach Lance Leipold, recently had an incredible 9–4 season that includes the team’s first bowl victory since 2008. Winning games is the easiest approach to boost a program’s recruiting health, even though Kansas must look outside of the state for the majority of its blue-chip talent.

Colorado dropped 16 spots from its rating the previous year to No. 37. The Deion Sanders experiment is well underway, and it appears that Coach Prime relies heavily on the transfer site. However, it will be intriguing to watch how the Buffs’ future prospects are affected by a return to the Big 12.

Baylor was one program that the voting committee gave an overall rating of. The Bears had a highest vote of 28 and a lowest vote of 65, placing them at 45th in the power rankings. The advantages include Baylor’s location in a talent-rich region of Texas and the upcoming opening of a new $90 million football development center this season. The drawbacks? After signing the 67th-ranked class for the 2024 cycle, the Bears require a fresh start. Head coach Dave Aranda changed his offensive and defensive play calls following a disastrous 3-9 season in 2023.

Spring Games

This week’s schedule

This weekend’s noteworthy spring games are listed below.The Athletic will broadcast live coverage of the games in bold. The times are all in Eastern Time.

Friday: