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Decoding ‘The Beast’: Unraveling the Mysteries of the Upcoming NFL Draft’s Top Talent

Every year, the NFL calendar has a number of historic events leading up to the draft: the combine, the Senior Bowl and Shrine Bowl all-star games, and the early-declaration deadline. And, of course, the day that Dane Brugler publishes The Beast, his comprehensive draft guide.

The Beast for this year, which included 402 player profiles and almost 2,000 prospects ranked, was released on Wednesday.

What was notable about Dane’s breakdowns? Which players may still be being ignored during this process? Nick Baumgardner and Scott Dochterman, two draft analysts, go into such subjects.

First, though, let us start over with the current situation at the top of the draft, where it seems increasingly likely that a quarterback run might happen quickly.

1. Nick, you had Minnesota (to No. 4), Atlanta (to No. 5), and Chicago (to No. 6) all trading inside the top 10 in your mock this week. Which teams will start Round 1 with the most aggression?

Nick Baumgardner Minnesota seems to be the logical choice. If you are not targeting a quarterback this year, I am not sure if you should make the move for an additional first-round pick. In my mock, I actually had Denver move down because I do not think the Broncos can afford to trade up given their current pick position. Nevertheless, I had them take a QB (Bo Nix). The Raiders in Las Vegas would undoubtedly like to advance, but I am not sure whether they can afford it.

For a while now, the Bears have seemed like a trade-up candidate, especially when you take into account the probable composition of the board. Rome Odunze, Malik Nabers, and Marvin Harrison Jr. are the three WR talents in this class that are genuinely exceptional. It would be great if the Bears could pair Caleb Williams with one of those players.

Detroit and Buffalo were the other two contenders that finished last in the first round. With Stefon Diggs gone, the Bills require a wide receiver. Brian Thomas Jr. of LSU is a first-round prospect who is unlikely to be available when Buffalo makes their No. 28 selection. Although Brad Holmes, the general manager, has shown he will not just grab a corner to fill a hole, Detroit still needs a corner. Do not be startled if Detroit becomes aggressive if Quinyon Mitchell or Terrion Arnold, who was in town this week, struggle.

Scott Dochterman:Minnesota is a team to keep an eye on until they have a quarterbacking strategy, such as Nix or Michael Penix Jr. However, where is the landing and who is it for? The Vikings should at least select a quarterback at No. 4 or No. 5 because they have more draft cash than Denver or Las Vegas thanks to their extra first round pick. (I do not see the Chargers facing the Raiders or Broncos at No. 5.)

I have a feeling that either Arnold or Mitchell, a defensive back, will fetch a high price for Philadelphia. The Eagles’ secondary by the end of the previous season was as effective as a spaghetti strainer with water in it. Both of those corners will disappear by No. 22. It makes sense to switch positions with Denver, for example, at No. 12.

Another team to keep an eye on is Kansas City. I could see the Chiefs trading with the Bears (who now own that pick, in addition to No. 1) if Odunze or Nabers falls to No. 9 overall. Chicago may be able to make up the second-round pick it lost in the Montez Sweat trade, given it now only has four draft picks overall. Patrick Mahomes has access to a superior external weapon.

2.

Dane’s top five QBs, in order: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix. Is it more likely that McCarthy leapfrogs someone to join the top three or that Daniels climbs ahead of Maye into the top two?

Baumgardner: To begin with, I do not believe either is likely. I believe that this cycle has seen far too much disparaging of Maye, some of it perhaps done on purpose. He is been my QB2 for a while now.

Nevertheless, I believe Daniels has a better chance of jumping up than McCarthy does, even if I think the difference between the two is closer than it is between Daniels and Maye. Daniels is a third-year quarterback, but there are concerns about his hesitation to go to the middle and his propensity to look down the pocket while under pressure—two things McCarthy does really well, when given the opportunity. Despite this, Daniels is far more experienced than McCarthy and possesses a superb arm and is a fantastic athlete who poses a real threat to the score. In my perspective, he has also improved more than any other player in America during the past two seasons.

Although I might wager on McCarthy in the long run, I also believe it will take him a minute to take over an NFL offense. Daniels ought to be prepared to go.

Dochterman:  Daniels sliding past Maye makes more sense to me than McCarthy sliding ahead of either of them. You can always count on Daniels to deliver, even as a rookie, and he will make plays. Although Daniels is less skilled as a passer and more explosive as a runner, I find him to be somewhat similar to Deshaun Watson. Regarding Daniels’ peak, I am not as sure. As a rookie, he might rank 16th in the NFL, but by Year 5, he might only rank 13th.

I see a lot of Kirk Cousins in Maye. He has upper-quartile potential in the long run, but it might take him some time to get there. McCarthy has promise, but as Nick pointed out, it will take him a season to find his footing in the proper environment. He might end up like Josh Rosen if he is thrust into things too soon. If he is given a year or more, better yet two, he could end up being Rich Gannon or Jake Plummer. Most groups would accept that.

3. Dane’s revised top 100 for the 2024 draft is included in The Beast. What about the rankings caught your attention?

Baumgardner: People ought to take a look at where Nix and Penix (Nix at No. 44 and Penix at No. 52) are ranked within the top 100. Day 2 grades are for both.

In my opinion, Nix has the potential to be a late first-round selection if a club has playmakers and a strong offensive and defensive line. Penix is presumably ranked higher than I would have him on The Beast board. A third-round prospect, he is more likely to be ranked around the bottom than the center of the top 100. It is difficult to bet against him because he has clearly endured a great deal already, but he is not a reliable passer, will soon turn 24 years old, and has sustained many injuries.

Marshawn Kneeland, a Western Michigan prospect ranked No. 32, was another name that caught attention. I adore it. Kneeland is one of those players that shines occasionally but looks amazing when he does, and he gives it his all on the field. With his growing pass-rush arsenal, he can use his enormous length (34 1/2 inches) to his advantage. He might develop quickly into a three-down player for someone.

Dochterman: I stopped to consider how Dane stacked his second-round cornerbacks after seeing some intriguing breakdowns in the secondary. Although Mike Sainristil (5-foot-9, 183 pounds) was a gritty player who led Michigan’s secondary last season, his size seemed to scream “third round.” Despite his limitations, Sainristil can still have a significant impact as he is ranked No. 43 on Dane’s board, ahead of Iowa State’s T.J. Tampa (No. 55) and Missouri’s Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (No. 49).

Maason Smith, a defensive tackle for LSU, astonished me with his ranking of No. 64. His 2022 season was cut short by an ACL tear, and by the end of the 2023 season, he was only beginning to show his true form. Smith, a five-star recruit and three-year player, has amazing potential if given the right guidance.

Tyler Nubin (No. 68), a safety from Minnesota, seemed a little low to me. Each time Nubin set foot on the turf, he tipped the field. He had more interceptions than completions permitted at one point in November.

Bonus, Scott-only interlude: Tory Taylor has a fourth-round grade in The Beast. As our resident Iowa beat writer, is that ranking fair or unfair?

Dochterman: Everything is fair in the fourth round. After surpassing the 85-year-old NCAA single-season record with 4,479 yards, Taylor’s leg miraculously did not fall off. In addition to having 40 punts of 50 yards or more last year, Taylor also has a Big Ten record for lifetime average (46.3 yards per punt), 32 punts within the 20-yard line, and 23 inside the 13. He is punted in subzero temperatures, strong winds, torrential rain, snow, and other situations that would make any NFL team happy.

However, what sets him apart from other punters is where he places his spots. Based mostly on his punting ability, Iowa may have won four games throughout his career: Penn State (2021), Iowa State (2021), South Dakota State (2022), and Wisconsin (2023). In the 2022 season opener, Iowa defeated South Dakota State 7-3 thanks to two safety that resulted from punts that fell inside the 7-yard line. Taylor averaged 48.6 yards per punt while missing 17 of a total of 27 punts inside the 20 (just two touchbacks) in the remaining three games. Every defense desires a tool like to Taylor’s. He makes a difference.

4. The Beast features profiles of 402 players. Give us a sleeper or two so that folks may learn more about them.

Baumgardner: Tylan Grable, a tackle for UCF, leaps out. Dane gives him a seventh-round rating, and it is difficult to disagree with his justification, yet Grable is a fascinating man with an amazing backstory. He was a 230-pound high school quarterback who briefly played defensive line, finally joined Jacksonville State as a walk-on tight end, and played for the TEs for one season before switching to the offensive line in 2019. Before the 2020 season, he put 50 pounds on his 6-5 frame, bringing his weight to 306 pounds. At the combine, he ran a 40-yard dash in 4.95 seconds, a fantastic 10-split time. He also measured a 36 1/2-inch vertical leap (99th percentile) and a 9 feet, 9-inch broad jump (98th percentile)..

Illinois tight end Advice Reiman possesses unusual athletic qualities and is built like a professional wrestler. Prior to making a late move to tight end in high school, he played linebacker and receiver. It took him a while to become proficient as a blocker, but eventually he succeeded. Reiman (6-4, 271) is a very good and proficient run blocker who plays at a tremendous long speed (4.64). Although he has only been a tight end for five years, his route running is not very polished, but it has gotten better every season.

Dochterman: Mohamed Kamara, a Colorado State edge, does not have many tangible qualities that would make him an NFL draft choice. After seeing him perform, you start to think he will land a part. Even when opponents who are 100 pounds heavier than Kamara are able to overwhelm him, Kamara (6-1, 248) prevails because to his strength, agility, and toughness. He can make a good living as a subpackage pass rusher and a four-unit special team player, in my opinion.

In addition, I would advise not writing off Penn State cornerback Kalen King following a subpar 2023 year. The same guy was considered a possible 2023 All-American and had broken up with 21 women in 2022. King (5-11, 190) had a difficult final season in every aspect—he only had two pass breakups and no picks—but he was ignored by many opponents. King might start in the NFL, but he needs to get stronger and more physically fit to make a team.

(Photo of Bo Nix: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)

 

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