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College Football’s NIL Boom: The Impact on the NFL and the Future of the Game

When the NFL Draft begins on Thursday night, there will be the usual bright lights and quarterback discussions. However, there is a difference this year that will become more apparent as the rounds go and Day 3 approaches on Saturday.

There are the fewest underclassmen since 2011 with just 58 declaring for this week’s draft, down from 130 players in 2021. The advent of NIL money is a significant influence, according to people in NFL circles.

“It’s crazy to fathom that some of these guys made more money in college than they will in the NFL,” Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur said.

Following the Supreme Court’s 2021 decision holding collegiate athletes entitled to compensation for their “name, image, and likeness,” players began to sign marketing partnerships. Players’ decision to stay in school has also been influenced by the 2020 season’s postponement due to the pandemic, since they were given an additional year of eligibility. Subsequently, the NCAA permitted athletes to move without having to serve a full year.

The majority of people who will be chosen in the top three rounds this week have money in the bank right now, but NIL payouts are not well-known individuals. Caleb Williams, the quarterback for USC and the likely number one choice by the Chicago Bears, is thought to have made roughly $10 million during his time in college. NFL coaches are observing a change in their contacts with draft hopefuls in the NIL era, albeit he may be an anomaly.

“You look for the guys that have that look in their eye,” Las Vegas Raiders coach Antonio Pierce said. “You can really feel it, and you can also see the guys that are entitled, that have NIL money, which is an issue because they come in privileged. They have money in the bank.

“When I came in the league, I was broke. These guys already got goddamn jewelry on and the Louis Vuitton rocking already.”

Pierce is looking for athletes who have an advantage, and he believes that having money from college already invested may have an impact on how hard a player is willing to work to earn a spot in the NFL starting lineup. Adding to the issue, Minnesota Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell stated that with so many players hitting the transfer portal at any given time, it is more difficult to predict how players will handle hardship.

“They already have money in their pocket, so you see some guys not going as hard in the pre-draft process,” agent Ron Slavin said. “And no one is eating those packs of ramen noodles anymore.”

In 2024, the NFL rookie minimum wage is set at $795,000. Drafted players sign normal four-year contracts that are scaled based on the draft slot; contracts for first-round picks also contain a fifth-year option. Williams, the first choice, has a slotted deal worth $38.5 million spread over four years. When the second round begins, the four-year value is less than $10 million. Players earn approximately $1 million a season on average from the fourth round onwards through their rookie contracts.

And that is where this year’s draft seems to have seen a sharp decline in player quality.

“Clubs are saying that this is a really good draft through 150 picks, and then after that it falls off a cliff,” agent Steve Caric said.

According to Dennis Hickey, the team’s deputy director of player personnel, 170 players with draftable grades returned to school this year, as stated by New York Giants general manager Joe Schoen on Thursday.

“Because of COVID partly and NIL, this whole draft landscape has changed,” Baltimore Ravens GM Eric DeCosta said. “There’s less draftable players, less underclassmen.”

“All those guys stayed in school for NIL money,” Senior Bowl executive director Jim Nagy said. “You’re going to see teams drafting players late that they usually sign as priority free agents.”

Players GM of the Vikings Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has been scouting for years, and he indicated that some are still not in the draft.

“It’s a supply and demand issue,” he said. “Defensive line was apparently a big issue in college, and a lot of those guys got a lot of money to go back to college. And so that’s gonna affect our league and the depth of that position and different things.”

NFL teams will probably try to package their fifth, sixth, and seventh-round picks in order to move up in the draft.

“We’ve talked about the idea of, (in) the later rounds of the draft, if there’s nobody there that you covet, potentially trading that pick for a better pick,” DeCosta said.

Over thirty booster collectives are overseen by Jason Belzer, the CEO and co-founder of Student Athlete NIL (SANIL), which is affiliated with several of the larger Power 5 colleges.

“I think the NIL has affected the NFL considerably, but for the better,” Belzer said. “You have more and more players that are choosing to stay in college football and develop and get paid, rather than go into the draft. There are multiple quarterbacks that made over a million dollars that are not going to get that kind of money because they’re going to be late-round picks. The NIL is the best thing that ever happened to the NFL when it comes to development.”

According to his estimations, forty college athletes made more than the $750,000 minimum pay required by the NFL in 2023. Many more, including a tackle who is expected to be selected this week in the sixth round, made $500,000 or more. According to Belzer, there are about five players on a Power 5 roster that earn more than $100,000.

The choice to go back to school can be quite simple for late-round selections who are not sure they will make the team.

“Getting drafted is a significant honor no matter where you go — even the sixth or seventh round — but if you’re a seventh-round pick, you’re getting, like, a $90,000 signing bonus, and that’s the only guaranteed part of your contract,” agent Eugene Lee said. “Compare that to a school where you have a front-line starter at a P4 school and you say, ‘Hey, come back! We’ll give you $350,000.’ It’s just like, ‘OK.’ You take out a loss-of-value policy and there you go.”

Prospects from subsequent rounds are merely seizing an opportunity to have their cake and eat it too.

“A fourth-round pick, for example, has a chance to go back to school and get better, move his draft status up and then make more money next year,” Caric said. “And as insurance, he can make what he would make with a Day 3 signing bonus thanks to NIL and coming back to school.”

Particularly as quarterback, more collegiate experience can be advantageous. At Arizona State and LSU, Jayden Daniels participated in 55 games, nearly twice as many as Drake Maye did at North Carolina (28 games).

“We don’t have a minor league, and those extra years is maybe a couple of minor-league years,” Adofo-Mensah said. “And that also depends on where they’re playing and the system, how relatable that is to our game.”

With first-round picks Nos. 11 and 23, the Vikings have the option to either stay there and spend their first pick on the best player available and their second pick on a quarterback like Oregon’s Bo Nix, or they may trade up to address their quarterback issue. Playing 61 games between Auburn and Oregon, Nix believes he has an advantage over other quarterbacks who might be selected in the first round.

“Repetition is the mother of all skill, so the more you can do something, the better you become at it,” Nix said at the combine. “I was able to prove that as the years went on, getting better and better, learning new things, playing in different systems — five in five years is a lot, but that’s a lot of fun. And I wouldn’t trade it for the world.”

The fact that Nix is 24 years old may affect how positive others view him.

“I don’t think it’s a bad thing if you come out a little bit older — and maybe even a better thing,” Raiders GM Tom Telesco said. “You’ve got more experience under your belt, more maturity at that position. Other positions, it may or may not matter.

“Typically as a scouting staff, we always say we’d like a younger player because the guy has a chance to develop, maybe has a little bit more ceiling. Is that true or not? I’m not really sure. But I do know that we’re going to have some players coming in the league that have good experience and may be ready to play a little bit earlier than maybe in times past.”

Nix had the option to declare for the draft last year, but he chose to stay in order to have the cushion that NIL provides and the opportunity to win a national title.

However, that experience advantage might just apply to quarterbacks.

“I can’t tell you how many conversations I have had in the last couple of weeks where I ask a club about Player A or Player B; the older age is always a minus,” Caric said. “They obviously want to draft someone they’re going to have for more than one contract. When you come into the league at 24 years old with these super-senior years, that’s not as attractive as the 21-year-old.”

JC Latham, an offensive tackle for Alabama, was able to live a different collegiate lifestyle than his teammates, but he also claimed that having more money helped him be ready for the NFL.

“It definitely has you grow up,” Latham said at the combine. “You gotta understand that you’re getting more money now, so there’s gonna be a bigger target on your back.”

Athletes can benefit from learning money management skills prior to their first NFL rookie camp.

“If you want to create more wealth for yourself and your family, you gotta really understand how to maneuver it and manage it,” Latham said. “Definitely puts you in the mindset to really understand what’s going on around you and how (you can) create your wealth early.”

The quantity of draftable players will increase once more the next season because all of these players who are still in school must eventually graduate.

Owners do not want to hear an explanation about the NIL influence following another poor season, thus general managers and coaches still need to select quality players in order to survive.

“I do think — especially in the early rounds — it’s a very good draft,” Denver Broncos GM George Paton said.

And while the NFL can moan a little about NIL, it does not alter the way it evaluates players based on their game footage and makes investment decisions.

“It hasn’t changed our preparation that much,” said first-year Seattle Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald, a former defensive coordinator at Michigan. “I was ready for it since we had it down back at Michigan.

“The only thing is that some of these players are going to have to take a pay cut to play in the league.”

(Top illustration: Dan Golfarb / The Athletic; top photos of Roger Goodell and Caleb Williams: Rich Graessle / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images and Michael Reaves / Getty Images)

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