A New Season Begins: Duke, Gonzaga, and Houston Lead the Way in Early Men’s College Basketball Rankings
Those in the industry have always called this exercise the way-too-early Top 25. A more appropriate title in this transfer portal era of college basketball would be the almost-impossible Top 25.
We realize this is a tough task, trying to speculate on who might return and who might leave and who might even be the coach. (Thanks, John Calipari.) We have done our best to make those projections. If we anticipate that you’ll leave for the NBA Draft based on our projections, then you are not included. There are probably some players listed here who think right now that they are leaving for the NBA but will ultimately return when they receive their feedback. This will be a lot easier in a few months when we have clarity on the rosters but, hey, the national champion has been crowned. We are starting to think about next year. And it’s always fun to project ahead. With that, here is your don’t-hold-us-to-it-super-early Top 25.
Projected starters: Jeremy Roach, Tyrese Proctor, Caleb Foster, Cooper Flagg (freshman), Khaman Maluach (freshman)
Notable returners: Mark Mitchell, Sean Stewart, T.J. Power, Jaden Schutt, Jayden Blakes
Other newcomers: Kon Knueppel, Isaiah Evans, Darren Harris, Patrick Ngongba II
As you might notice by the fact that we have 14 players listed here when Duke only has 13 scholarships to play with, we can expect a level of attrition in the coming days on this roster. At the very least, someone has got to go. Having said that, this is the deepest team in college basketball as presently constructed at the time of recording, and projects extremely well in terms of upside.
This Duke team kind of has everything. You want extreme upside freshmen? Flagg and Maluach in the frontcourt are projected top-three picks. Flagg, particularly, projects to be a high-impact, winning basketball player as a freshman due to his improved offensive skill set and elite defensive traits. Want older backcourt guys? Roach and Proctor are upperclassmen who have been through it before, helping to lead Duke to the Elite Eight this year. Proctor still has some NBA upside, and Roach is the kind of steady scorer every team wants. A gritty upper-class glue guy? Mark Mitchell is a fantastic defender who has started all but one game of his Duke career to this point, and we don’t even currently have him projected as a starter because we like the fit of having shooters next to Flagg and Maluach a bit better. How about some potential post-hype, breakout sophomores? Foster had flashes of fantastic play this season. Stewart and Power are former top-20 recruits with real upside.
We haven’t even gotten to the rest of the freshman class, which includes three more top-20 players in the 2024 class in Evans, Knueppel, and Ngongba. Evans is skinny but has immense upside long-term, and Knueppel is a ready-to-go college scorer with a strong build and real skills to match. This is an absurd collection of talent. There aren’t enough minutes to go around. In the coming weeks, we’ll see where exactly this roster falls. But as of the time of publishing, there is absolutely no better collection of talent in college basketball for next season. It is a ridiculous group of players.
2. Gonzaga
Projected starters: Ryan Nembhard, Nolan Hickman, Steele Venters, Ben Gregg, Graham Ike
Notable returners: Braden Huff, Dusty Stromer
Other newcomers: Michael Ajayi
Gonzaga was about as good as anybody to close this season. They were one of the 10 best teams in the country from Jan. 15 onward after a rough start, as a lot of newcomers adjusted to Mark Few’s offense and tried to get settled into a different environment. But by the time that Jan. 15 mark hit, it was all systems go. The Zags were No. 4 in offensive efficiency according to Bart Torvik over that time, and went 16-3 with their only losses coming to Saint Mary’s and Purdue. They made their ninth consecutive Sweet 16, which is truly just an absurd degree of sustained success.
And here’s the thing about the Zags next year: They get nearly everyone back from this year’s team. The only projected departure is program stalwart Anton Watson, and the team has already gone into the transfer portal and at least replaced him positionally with Pepperdine forward Ajayi, a first-team All-WCC member who averaged 17 points and nine rebounds. The keys here come at the pivot points, though. Nembhard was one of the best point guards in the country from the start of February onward, dishing out 8.4 assists versus only 2.4 turnovers. Then Ike, a dominant post player, averaged 18.4 points and 7.2 rebounds from Jan. 25 onward.
Throw in that they’ll also get back Venters, the 2023 Big Sky Player of the Year who tore his ACL in the preseason and left the Zags with a hole on the wing this season that they couldn’t fill. Yeah, Gonzaga is very well-positioned to succeed, and that’s before even getting to Huff, who we believe has legitimate star potential in college basketball. Gonzaga has another real chance to cut down the nets next season.
3. Houston
Projected starters: Portal Player TBD, L.J. Cryer, Emanuel Sharp, J’Wan Roberts, Ja’Vier Francis
Notable returners: Joseph Tugler, Terrance Arceneaux, Mylik Wilson, Ramon Walker
Other newcomers: Chase McCarty, Mercy Miller
Houston’s roster as currently constructed could arguably be the Big 12 favorite. Add a quality point guard out of the portal and it’ll be the clearcut Big 12 favorite and a preseason national title contender. Considering Kelvin Sampson’s hit rate in the portal, we’re going to assume that happens. The Cougars have had teams good enough to get to a Final Four the last three years and been crushed by injuries late. At some point you’d think their injury luck will change. This could be one of Sampson’s deepest teams. If Tugler and Arceneaux really do come off the bench, it’ll be one of those scenarios where a coach can say “We have seven starters” and it’s not just something he says to make his bench guys feel good about themselves. Tugler and Arceneaux are two players NBA scouts have had their eyes on.
Obviously, Big 12 Player of the Year/All-American Jamal Shead is a huge loss, but Cryer has the potential to be an All-American and we know the defense is going to continue to be awesome.
Projected starters: Tamin Lipsey, Keshon Gilbert, Curtis Jones, Milan Momcilovic, Dishon Jackson (transfer)
Notable returners: Demarion Watson
Other newcomers: Nate Heise (transfer), Nojus Indrusaitis, Dwayne Pierce
Depending on who else Iowa State adds in the portal, this could end up being an even better team than the 2024 Big 12 tournament champs. The Cyclones return their four leading scorers in Gilbert, Lipsey, Jones and Momcilovic and already have landed an offensive upgrade at center in Charlotte transfer Jackson, who averaged 11.4 points and 6.1 rebounds per game this season. Northern Iowa transfer Heise, who averaged 13.5 points per game, could become a starter or sixth man, depending on whether T.J. Otzelberger wants to keep Jones in the role of microwave man off the bench. Otzelberger and his staff have done an excellent job at identifying under-the-radar guys in the portal who fit their culture. So it’s almost at the point that anyone he signs from the portal you just assume they’ll outperform expectations. Defensively, the Cyclones should once again be one of the best in the country, especially if they land at least one more athletic big.
5. Connecticut
Projected starters: Hassan Diarra, Solomon Ball, Jaylin Stewart, Alex Karaban, Samson Johnson
Notable returners: Jayden Ross
Other newcomers: Ahmad Nowell, Isaiah Abraham
We’re projecting that Karaban returns, with Stephon Castle and Donovan Clingan going pro. That still leaves the Huskies with some experience as well as a bevy of talent from a loaded rising sophomore class that projects to be terrific for the Huskies in 2024-25. But the key returner here is indeed Karaban, who would project as a first-team All-Big East player next season as a knockdown shooter who has improved as a driver and is solid on defense.
Beyond them, Diarra projects to step into the starting guard role after spending two seasons as a change-of-pace defender. Stewart is an athletic scorer who should step up into being a more primary player, and complements Karaban at the four well. Johnson isn’t quite the defender that Clingan is, but he’s an elite rim-runner who plays at high speed in transition and out of ball screens. Ross and Ball are different, but Ross can really shoot it on the wing, and Ball is a strong combo guard with length. Beyond that though, Connecticut will have at least three scholarships to work with in the portal to add to their team. We guess that given the last two seasons, the Huskies will be an extremely popular destination.
Projected starters: Latrell Wrightsill Jr., Rylan Griffen, Derrion Reid (freshman), Jarin Stevenson, Grant Nelson
Notable returners: Nick Pringle, Sam Walters, Mohamed Wague, Mouhamed Dioubate, Kris Parker, Davin Cosby
Other newcomers: Aidan Sherrell, Naas Cunningham, Houston Mallette
Much like with Duke above, we’re listing 14 players here — and that’s including a projected departure from Mark Sears cashing in on his outstanding NCAA Tournament to turn professional. So there will obviously be some roster attrition in the coming days. But, man, is this roster so incredibly deep coming back.
The big returners here are Nelson and Griffen, both of whom project to have monster upperclass seasons for the Tide if they go back to school. Nelson really started to figure out SEC play later in the year and in the NCAA Tournament, using his athletic tools and skills off the bounce to take centers away from the rim. Griffen is a 3-and-D wing with potential for more. But the team is also just straight-up loaded with wing and forward talent. Stevenson and Walters had good freshman seasons that should allow them to grow into even more important roles as sophomores. Pringle played a terrific bruiser role this year. Wague and Dioubate were good in limited roles.
GRANT NELSON OH MY GOODNESS #MarchMadness @AlabamaMBB pic.twitter.com/6qi24R5ZBm
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) April 7, 2024
Then to top it off, the Tide have a top-five recruiting class led by Reid and Sherrell. Reid is a big-time scorer who is a more physical driver than a skilled wing, but he would work nicely in lineups with Stevenson and Nelson pulling rim protectors away from the basket. Sherrell is best right now as an enormous rim-runner who can defend, and should be able to get early minutes next year as a complement to a skilled big like Nelson. Cunningham is a top-50 recruit who was at one time considered one of the best players in his class before leveling off a bit late during his prep years. They’ve also already brought in a lights-out shooter from Pepperdine in Mallette who is a good fit for their scheme.
The only place that the Tide could stand to upgrade the depth at is point guard, where Wrightsell is a bit on his own right now. If they find that answer in the portal, watch out.
Projected starters: Dajuan Harris Jr., Zeke Mayo (transfer), Riley Kugel (transfer), KJ Adams, Hunter Dickinson
Notable returners: Elmarko Jackson, Zach Clemence, Jamari McDowell
Other newcomers: Flory Bidunga, Labaron Philon, Rakease Passmore
Kansas arguably has a better roster now than this past season’s team that opened the year ranked No. 1. Bill Self has addressed the depth issue by grabbing two transfers already and also signing one of the top freshman classes, headlined by five-star big man Flory Bidunga. The Jayhawks also badly needed to add some shooting, and Zeke Mayo helps there. The Summit League Player of the Year was one of the best shooters available in the portal. He made 92 3s this season at a 39.1 percent clip. It’s also possible that Johnny Furphy returns for his sophomore season, but we’re projecting him as a loss right now considering he’s a potential first-round pick.
Shooting and floor-spacing are still a concern, but this is definitely a deeper and more athletic team. Also, a relevant stat: This season marked the fourth time Bill Self did not win the Big 12; he followed those first three seasons up by winning the Big 12 each year. The last two times it happened were 2019 and 2021. In 2020, KU was the favorite to win the national title until the pandemic shut down the tournament, and in 2022 KU won the national title. A motivated Self is a dangerous man.
Projected starters: Zakai Zeigler, Jahmai Mashack, Jordan Gainey, Tobe Awaka, Jonas Aidoo
Notable returners: JP Estrella, Cameron Carr, Cade Phillips, D.J. Jefferson
Other newcomers: Bishop Boswell
The Volunteers will lose first-team All-American Dalton Knecht, and that is a significant loss. Knecht is what made Tennessee different this season, allowing them to score bail-out buckets when the offensive execution got tough. Next year, they’ll need to find that answer — potentially in the portal again, given that they still project to have three open scholarship slots.
But the backbone of this recent Tennessee run has been elite defense, and all of the pieces from this past season’s No. 3 defense in the country, per KenPom, are back. Zeigler and Mashack on the perimeter as well as Aidoo on the interior are the important players there, as Rick Barnes has created a terrific high-pressure defense that also protects the rim at an elite level. The big thing this current group will need is some of the rising sophomores to step up, including dynamic offensive player Carr, a former top-50 recruit who was just quite skinny this past season and needed a bit of time to develop his frame.
9. North Carolina
Projected starters: Elliot Cadeau, RJ Davis, Ian Jackson (freshman), Harrison Ingram, Jalen Washington
Notable returners: Jae’Lyn Withers, Seth Trimble
Other newcomers: Drake Powell, James Brown
This all hinges on the return of Davis and Ingram. They could elect to go pro, but we’re speculating that based on their draft stock they will eventually decide to return to North Carolina, where the guaranteed money should be better than what they’ll get next season as professionals. The very small sample size of a Davis-Cadeau- Ingram-Washington lineup that did not include Armando Bacot on the floor was promising. That group with a fifth non-Bacot player was plus-39 in 78 minutes, per CBB Analytics. This team should be more athletic with five-stars Jackson and Powell replacing Cormac Ryan and Paxson Wojcik in the rotation. Defensively, it’s also promising with the Heels coming off a year finishing eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency and Washington providing better rim protection than Bacot.
Projected starters: Tahaad Pettiford, Denver Jones, Chad Baker-Mazara, Johni Broome, Dylan Cardwell
Notable returners: Chaney Johnson, Chris Moore
Other newcomers: Jahki Howard
This high ranking is under the assumption that Broome, one of the most underrated stars in college basketball, returns to school. Auburn was a metrics darling this year because of the way it ran teams off the floor. Out of its 27 wins, 26 were by double digits. The Tigers struggled in close games, and their bugaboo was guard play, which proved costly in the season-ending loss to Yale when Aden Holloway, Tre Donaldson and KD Johnson all struggled. Both Donaldson and Johnson have hit the transfer portal; Holloway is still on the roster, but we’re not projecting he returns.
The Tigers add to their backcourt depth by adding four-star guards Pettiford and Howard, but adding at least one guard out of the portal has to be a priority. A replacement for Jaylin Williams could also be a need. Broome and Cardwell played only 12 minutes together this season, per CBB Analytics. It could maybe work because Broome can play some on the perimeter. Purdue and NC State have proven you can play more traditional frontlines and win in March. The given is this team should be elite on defense. Auburn had the top effective field-goal percentage defense in the country and returns great positional size. And not many return as strong a core as the Tigers.
Projected starters: Kylan Boswell, Jaden Bradley, KJ Lewis, Carter Bryant (freshman), Motiejus Krivas
Other newcomers: Jamari Phillips, Emmanuel Stephen, Joson Sanon
The Wildcats need to add some shooting and frontcourt depth out of the portal, but the next wave of talent is strong. Krivas averaged 17.7 points and 13.9 rebounds per 40 minutes as a freshman, and Arizona’s defense was at its best with him at center. The Cats were 8.2 points per 100 possessions defensively better with Krivas than when Oumar Ballo was on the floor. The trio of Boswell, Bradley and Lewis allows them to continue playing at their preferred up-tempo pace. If Bradley can improve his perimeter jumper — he shot it well in limited attempts (13-of-28 from 3) — he has the potential to slide into the Caleb Love role as the primary scorer.
Bryant is the prototypical small-ball four. He’ll pair well with Krivas. He has a strong reputation as a passer and has good feel. Then defensively, he has the kind of instincts and versatility to replace what Arizona had in Keshad Johnson. Of course, he’s a freshman, so not fair to expect he’ll be as good as Johnson on that end. But the Cats made a big leap defensively this past year and with Krivas starting now and the quickness they have on the perimeter, they should be strong there again. Tommy Lloyd has fared well in the portal, so it’s not a leap to expect Arizona will add several impact transfers.
12. Purdue
Projected starters: Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, Camden Heide, Trey Kaufman-Renn, Caleb Furst
Notable returners: Myles Colvin, Will Berg, Brian Waddell
Other newcomers: Kanon Catchings, Gicarri Harris, Raleigh Burgess, Daniel Jacobsen, CJ Cox, Jack Benter
Purdue loses Zach Edey and Lance Jones but returns every other relevant piece, and it will now be time for Kaufman-Renn to become the featured low-post scorer. The Boilermakers got a preview of that last summer when Edey was off with Team Canada and Kaufman-Renn led the Boilers in scoring during a foreign tour. Smith is already one of the best point guards in college hoops and could elevate himself to All-America status when he takes on more of a scoring role. It’s rare to have so much experience and production returning. It’s going to be difficult to replace Edey, but Matt Painter has two giants lined up to possibly be next. Berg, a 7-2 freshman this season, shot 75 percent from the field in limited minutes, and Painter signed a 7-foot-3 center in Jacobsen. He’s got a type!
13. BYU
Projected starters: Dallin Hall, Dawson Baker, Richie Saunders, Noah Waterman, Aly Khalifa
Notable returners: Trevin Knell, Fousseyni Traore, , Atiki Ally Atiki, Trey Stewart
Other newcomers: Collin Chandler, Isaac Davis
BYU has as much roster continuity as anyone in this Top 25, and the much-awaited arrival of Chandler is finally here. Chandler, a four-star prospect from the 2022 class who has been on a two-year mission, was the highest-rated recruit to ever sign with the Cougars. Chandler could become the instant offense off the bench that leading scorer Jaxson Robinson provided this season. Robinson still has one year of eligibility remaining, but we’re projecting him to leave.
This team was already incredibly fun to watch, playing up-tempo, shooting a bunch of 3s and moving and cutting around Aly Khalifa, one of the best passing centers in college basketball. Getting Baker back also adds to the fun. The UC Irvine transfer played only four games before a foot injury ended his season, but he averaged 15.3 points his final season at UC Irvine and is a terrific passer. BYU’s defense gets a boost from the return of Waterman, who got a medical redshirt approved and an extra year of eligibility granted by the NCAA. The Cougars will have one of the best benches in college hoops. This is a dream scenario for Mark Pope. He has an old team with awesome chemistry, and he adds a guard with pro potential.
14. Marquette
Projected starters: Stevie Mitchell, Kam Jones, Chase Ross, David Joplin, Ben Gold
Notable returners: Sean Jones, Tre Norman, Zaire Lowery
Other newcomers: Damarius Owens, Royce Parham
We’re projecting here that Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro leave to go pro following two consecutive tremendous seasons. That still leaves Marquette with the backbone of an awesome team led by Jones, who projects as a preseason All-American after averaging 17.2 points per game while shooting 50 percent from the field and 40 percent from 3. Look for him to take on more of an on-ball role following Kolek’s departure, something that might unlock an even more dynamic part of his game.
Beyond him, Joplin averaged double-figures last year and Mitchell is a tremendous defender in the backcourt. Ross was also a part-time starter as a sophomore, showcasing high-level athleticism in the open court as well as shooting ability. The big key to their season will be how Gold holds up as a starter. Gold can really step away and shoot, but needs to get stronger and become more of a factor on the interior and on the boards. Jones and Norman should be comfortable in their roles again, and they also have one more scholarship available if Ighodaro doesn’t return.
15. Baylor
Projected starters: Jayden Nunn, V.J. Edgecombe (freshman), Langston Love, Jason Asemota (freshman), Josh Ojianwuna
Notable returners: Miro Little, Caleb Lohner
Other newcomers: Robert Wright III, Noah Boyed
Baylor is set to roll on under Scott Drew, with another loaded perimeter group that should continue to find success. We’re projecting that Ja’Kobe Walter, Yves Missi and Jalen Bridges all depart, but there’s still plenty left. The main key here is the addition of Edgecombe, an athletic marvel at 6-foot-4 who is as explosive and creative with the ball as any player you’re going to find in the country next year. He projects as a top-five pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, and would have been the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft.
More importantly though, he’s surrounded by veteran guards. Nunn and Love were two of six players for the Bears to average double-figures this year, and both particularly came on late in the year with terrific scoring and shooting. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see either end up as a borderline All-Big 12 selection next year. The questions about Baylor, though, start in the frontcourt. Ojianwuna was a 15-minute-per-game backup this year, and Lohner is a solid bench piece. We’ve projected incoming top-50 freshman Jason Asemota as the starter, but the frontcourt as a whole is the most likely upgrade spot for the Bears in the portal given that they still have three available slots.
Projected starters: Jeremiah Williams, Tyson Acuff (transfer), Dylan Harper (freshman), Ace Bailey (freshman), Zach Martini (transfer)
Notable returners: Jamichael Davis, Oskar Palmquist, Emmanuel Ogbole
Other newcomers: Lathan Sommerville, Dylan Grant, Bryce Dortch
This is all about who is coming in as opposed to who is returning. The Scarlet Knights have one of the best recruiting classes in the country, led by potential top-five picks Bailey and Harper. Harper, the son of former NBA guard Ron Harper Sr., is a dynamic scoring threat from all three levels who profiles as the team’s key perimeter offensive shot creator. Then as a forward, Bailey is a mismatch nightmare. He’s too athletic and quick for bigs and wings, but too strong for opposing wings and guards. He’s a serious contender for the No. 1 overall pick in 2025.
There is a good group of older players that will surround them, too, after Steve Pikiell has done some smart work early in the transfer portal. He went out and got a terrific scoring guard from Eastern Michigan in Acuff who averaged 21.7 points and was an All-MAC selection. Then, he went and got Martini from Princeton as a floor-spacing forward who will help space the floor for Harper and Bailey. Williams was strong late in the season, too, at the lead guard position. He wasn’t eligible until February after being suspended due to gambling while at Iowa State, but once he played, he seriously upgraded the Rutgers offense. The Scarlet Knights still can upgrade in the portal with a couple of scholarships, too. We’d expect one more true big man.
17. Saint Mary’s
Projected starters: Augustas Marciulionis, Aidan Mahaney, Luke Barrett, Zion Sensley (freshman), Mitchell Saxen
Notable returners: Harry Wessels, Jordan Ross, Chris Howell
Other newcomers: Mikey Lewis, Josh Dent
The Gaels have some work to do in the portal, but the baseline of the team that went 26-8 and was a top-20 team in the country this season is back. Marciulionis, the reigning WCC Player of the Year, and Mahaney make up a tremendous backcourt that can hang with just about anyone in the country, with Marciulionis setting the table and Mahaney creating shots late in the clock and scoring. Behind them on defense is Saxen, the WCC’s Defensive Player of the Year who doesn’t block a ton of shots but protects the rim at an exceedingly high level. Behind him is Wessels, a player who has played with the Australian national team and helps to crush the glass. Saint Mary’s was the best rebounding team in the country this past season, finishing top-three nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate.
To keep that up, they will need to replace Alex Ducas and Joshua Jefferson on the wings. They do have a strong freshman class entering that is led by Sensley and Lewis, but don’t be surprised to see them hit the portal and look to shore up their size across the wings with a skilled three or four who can shoot. That’s the last missing piece here.
18. Miami
Projected starters: Nijel Pack, Wooga Poplar, Matthew Cleveland, Brandon Johnson, Lynn Kidd
Other newcomers: Jalil Bethea, Austin Swartz, Isaiah Johnson-Arigu
Miami lost its last 10 games of the season and was not particularly good throughout the early portion of the year, either. And, yes, a lot of the same pieces of that team are on this team, including its starting perimeter trio. But the Hurricanes have already added a lot in the portal, and have a monster scorer coming in as a freshman in Bethea. Bethea is a dynamic player off the dribble who can knock down shots from any angle, including pull-ups from beyond the arc. We have him coming off of the bench right now behind the experienced guys, but he’s a serious dude and a likely one-and-done.
Then on top of it, the Hurricanes’ biggest worry last year was interior depth and rebounding. Largely, that was because they played small on the wings. Cleveland and potential first-round pick Kyshawn George — who we have departing here — are tall enough, but neither is particularly strong or good enough on the glass to keep opposing teams off of it. With the Kidd and Johnson commitments coming already, we do project here that Norchad Omier moves on. Otherwise, the early Kidd commitment wouldn’t make sense, given that the two of them would struggle to play together. But Kidd and Johnson together are a very strong combination, as both can excel on the glass in a way and give real size on the interior, with Johnson — a terrific transfer from East Carolina — also being able to space it out from 3 in a big way.
The Hurricanes also still have three or four scholarships to use on the transfer portal and will out their depth, giving them a ton of flexibility to add to the roster in the coming month.
Projected starters: Walter Clayton Jr., Denzel Aberdeen, Will Richard, Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon
Notable returners: Micah Handlogten (injured)
Other newcomers: Isaiah Brown
This is the epitome of betting on upside. The Gators have the core of an awesome team under Todd Golden, with a potential All-American in Clayton. He averaged 17.6 points and projects as one of the best scorers in all of college basketball next season. On top of that, they have a 6-foot-11 big in Condon who made the All-Freshman team in the SEC this season and is one of the most skilled returning bigs in the country. He can step out and shoot as well as score on the interior. We would bet on him as an All-SEC player next season. Richard is also a returning starter who averaged double-figures and can really shoot.
Having said that, their offseason will tell the story of where exactly they end up in the preseason. They project to have four or five scholarships to use on transfers at a school that has had real success with them. Zyon Pullin is a prime example this past season, as he became a first-team All-SEC guard in his lone year in Gainesville. Tyrese Samuel and Handlogten also had terrific years this past year. Handlogten remains on the roster, but it feels like a tough sell that he’ll be ready for the start of SEC play after his significant injury in the SEC tournament. Look for Florida to go get a terrific two-way guard to put next to Clayton in addition to some further frontcourt depth.
Projected starters: Ja’Kobi Gillespie (transfer), Rodney Rice (transfer), DeShawn Harris-Smith, Julian Reese, Derik Queen (freshman)
Notable returners: Jordan Geronimo, Jahari Long, Chance Stephens
Other newcomers: Malachi Palmer
Maryland struggled this past season, but the Terrapins bring an infusion of big-time talent to the table across the positional spectrum. The first name to know here is Queen, a high-IQ, big-bodied big man who can score on the block and pass at a really impressive level. His soft hands allow him to catch just about everything, and his footwork and touch are pristine even if he’s not overly vertical. Pairing him with Reese will give the Terps one of the best interior combinations in the league. Reese projects as an All-Big Ten forward next year after averaging 13.7 points and 9.5 rebounds this past season.
That duo will be strong enough to anchor them on the interior, but the guards also project to be better this year. Kevin Willard has done great work in the transfer portal already, getting two transfer perimeter players that will be really helpful. Gillespie was one of the better guards available — he averaged 17.2 points and 4.2 assists in the Missouri Valley last year, which has a very strong track record of sending upperclassmen to the Big Ten. They also added former Virginia Tech guard Rice, who has struggled a bit with the injury bug but is a former top-100 player who is entering his third season of college basketball. They also have three scholarships available to use as necessary to grab another wing and front court player.
21. Texas A&M
Projected starters: Wade Taylor IV, Manny Obaseki, Jace Carter, Solomon Washington, Andersson Garcia
Notable returners: Hayden Hefner, Henry Coleman III
Newcomers: Andre Mills, George Turkson
The Aggies won six of eight once Obaseki joined the starting lineup late in the year, and they nearly upset top-seeded Houston in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Tyrece Radford is going to be difficult to replace, but Taylor IV and Obaseki make up one of the better returning backcourts. Taylor averaged 19.1 points per game this season, but his efficiency dropped. He made 92 3s but at a 32.5 percent clip. If he can bump his efficiency up, he has a chance to be an All-America level guard and Obaseki will likely take on more of an offensive role with the loss of Radford. The Aggies were the best offensive-rebounding team in the country, and that should continue with the return of Washington, Garcia and Coleman III.
Projected starters: Jeremy Fears Jr., Tre Holloman, Jaden Akins, Coen Carr, Carson Cooper
Notable returners: Jaxon Kohler, Xavier Booker
Newcomers: Kur Teng, Jase Richardson, Jesse McCulloch
Offensively there are some question marks with the loss of Tyson Walker and Malik Hall, but the Spartans should once again have one of the best defensive teams in the country. They’re coming off finishing ninth in adjusted defense, and enough of the core returns to assume the excellence on that end continues. They stay old because Izzo rarely loses anyone to the transfer portal. Izzo mostly stays out of the portal, but he may want to look for an experienced wing scorer unless he believes one of the freshmen is ready to contribute right away. Four-star guard Richardson, the son of Jason Richardson, is the best bet there.
Projected starters: Lamont Butler, Micah Parrish, Reese Waters, Jay Pal, Miles Heide
Notable returners: Miles Byrd, Elijah Saunders,
Newcomers: Taj Degourville, Pharaoh Compton, Thokbor David Majak
We’re assuming that Butler, Parrish and Pal will ultimately decide to use their COVID-19 year. If so, the Aztecs have a solid core returning, and the only real need in the portal will be a frontcourt scorer and some guard depth. We know that no matter who is on the roster, San Diego State will be elite defensively. The worst Brian Dutcher’s unit has finished on that end in the last five years is 21st. Dutcher and his staff have been one of the best at identifying gems in the portal, and the Aztecs have had their best two-year run when it comes to NCAA Tournament success, so they have a lot to sell.
24. Creighton
Projected starters: Steven Ashworth, Portal Player TBD, Mason Miller, Jasen Green, Ryan Kalbrenner
Notable returner: Isaac Traudt
Newcomers: Ty Davis, Larry Johnson, Jackson McAndrew
We are projecting that Trey Alexander will leave for the NBA Draft and Kalkbrenner will return, and there’s just no way we cannot include Creighton in this Top 25 if Kalkbrenner is back. Now that Donovan Clingan is gone, Kalkbrenner is the best defensive center in college basketball. Greg McDermott has a lot of work to do in the transfer portal, but the Jays should be a desirable location for scoring guards. They get to play with an elite big man and next to Ashworth, a floor-stretcher who is willing to be a blend guy more than an alpha. We’re betting that McDermott will bring in multiple shiny new transfer pieces, because he’s had success in the portal before — Baylor Scheierman is the latest example — and again, who wouldn’t want to play with Kalkbrenner? He protects the rim, he catches everything and he’s terrific in the pick-and-roll. It’s a pretty easy recruiting pitch.
Projected starters: Boogie Fland (freshman), D.J. Wagner, Billy Richmond (freshman), Jayden Quaintance (freshman), Zvonimir Ivisic
Notable returners: Ugonna Onyenso, Jordan Burks, Joey Hart
Other newcomers: Travis Perry, Somto Cyril
Full transparency here: We had Kentucky ranked in the top 15 before John Calipari decided to leave for Arkansas. That threw this entire thing for a loop. On the Arkansas/Cal front: The Razorbacks don’t have a roster as of the time of this publication, so we can’t in good conscience rank them. But what do we do with Kentucky, given the obvious roster uncertainty?
We decided that as of the publication of this story, No. 25 was the most fair. As of right now, with what the team has, they absolutely need to be ranked. But how many stay or go? That remains to be seen.
Fland is a tremendous scoring guard who plays like a leader out on the court and defends well for his 6-foot-2 size. Small guards aren’t exactly in vogue right now in the NBA, but he has a real chance to be a one-and-done. Quaintance is actually going to have to stay in college for two years due to his age, but he’s my favorite long-term prospect on the roster as a big playmaking forward who can create mismatches. Onyenso and Ivisic are enormous rim protectors, and Ivisic has a ton of offensive skill to spare. Cyril gives them depth as a freshman. Richmond is a strong wing athlete who will give the team a burst in transition, and I actually liked the tough minutes Jordan Burks provided for Kentucky defensively off the bench this season. We also have D.J. Wagner returning to college.
There’s also this reality: Kentucky is going to hire an elite coach. There’s no doubt about it. The resources, Rupp Arena, the fan base. All of it is going to lead to a truly great coach deciding to take that job. Now, the roster might be different, and the vibe of the program might change. But Kentucky isn’t going away any time soon.
(Top photos of Emanuel Sharp, Cooper Flagg and Dajuan Harris Jr.: Andy Hancock / NCAA Photos; Juan Ocampo and G Fiume / Getty Images)