A Game of Musical Chairs: How the Transfer Portal Transformed QB Recruiting into a Gamble
“A planner” is how Dan Sayin characterizes his youngest son.
When Julian Sayin, the best quarterback available in the 2024 recruiting class, signed to Alabama, there was consequently considerable thought given to Nick Saban’s potential retirement. Maybe when he won the national title later on. Maybe even sooner.
The day Julian, an early enrollee, began school for Alabama’s spring term turned out to be much sooner.
“It was a shocker,” Dan Sayin said.
Julian was enjoying his time at Alabama and had already made friends with the starting quarterback, Jalen Milroe. But after Saban retired, the family started considering other options.
“A lot of ‘What if we went into the portal?’” said Karen Brandenburg, Julian’s mom. “A lot of ‘What are good options in my head? What did I like before? What looks good now?’ … And also, of course, ‘What if I stayed?’ He loved the QB room at Alabama. But you know, it just wasn’t the same. He had come to play for (Saban).”
Like many others before them, the Sayin family was faced with a new reality: quarterbacks plot, college football laughs.
There is greater uncertainty than ever at the quarterback position as the sport’s landscape constantly evolves, primarily because of a transfer site that encourages impatience from all sides but also because of the coaching carousel and NIL.
As coaches and players want immediate satisfaction, development frequently takes a backseat, and it is practically hard to chart a school’s future for any position at any level of the college football food chain.
“It’s like this constant chess game with everybody trying to figure out what’s the next move and what’s going to be best for everyone,” USC coach Lincoln Riley said. “You certainly have to be prepared for anything and everything.”
Riley is thought to be the best quarterback development in college football. Caleb Williams, Kyler Murray, and Baker Mayfield were all guided to Heisman Trophies by him. Williams is anticipated to join the esteemed group of players who were selected first overall in the NFL Draft, along with Mayfield and Murray, next month.
What is his opinion of the current status of quarterback development, then?
“Ohhhhh, man,” he said. “It’s probably not as healthy in the last several years with all the recent developments.”
The transfer portal has had a stronger impact, according to coaches and families, but many will interpret “recent events” and refer to NIL. The quarterback position is mostly one of opportunity.
Furthermore, for highly regarded quarterback prospects, the second year of college appears to be a critical turning point. Prior to their third college season, eight of the top 15 quarterback recruits in the 2022 cycle transferred.
Private quarterback coach Danny Hernandez has worked with Sayin, Bryce Young, Malachi Nelson, and Maalik Murphy, among other players. He has observed the acquisition and growth of quarterbacks from every perspective.
“I don’t think we’re ever going to see another Mac Jones,” Hernandez said. “I know after two years if you’re in the mix or not.”
After graduating from high school with four stars, Jones had to wait three years to start for Alabama in 2020, behind Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa. Jones led the Crimson Tide to a national championship in his lone season as the starter and was unanimously selected as an All-America selection.
Stories of perseverance and growth have become uncommon in the age of instant transfer eligibility, while there are still notable outliers (Carson Beck at Georgia is one well-known example).
Of the 68 Power 4 teams, only roughly twelve are expected to start quarterbacks in 2024 who advanced up the depth chart over several seasons. Conversely, 42 power-conference clubs have the option to start a transfer quarterback.
Quarterbacks and their families are often regarded as the cause of impatience, but coaches are quickening the process by recruiting over their existing players in the search for a quick fix with a known commodity.
“You’ve given both these coaches and players another tactic to use and both are. I think there’s a lot of impatience,” Riley said. “Some of that comes from, at times, unrealistic expectations of those that aren’t within the walls where people feel like they just have to do something drastic to meet those expectations.
“But I understand the temptation behind it, especially with that position. There’s so many options and possibilities out there now, I think for everybody, sometimes it’s hard not to take a look across the fence and wonder if it’s better on the other side.”
Despite having quarterbacking concerns, Alabama and Ohio State were strong candidates for the national championship going into the previous season. And for two teams that had been used to excellent quarterback play, it was at times a rough road. It is hard to imagine these programs, along with others with rightful hopes for national titles, putting themselves in a similar predicament once more unless they have a great deal of faith in the quality they have available.
It seems like every program is looking for the extremely gifted student or the seasoned transfer. There are fewer middle-class quarterbacks who sign and remain in school for a few years. This is also influenced by other factors. since of the pandemic, some players have an extra year of eligibility, which is preventing them from joining the team earlier. Colleges are also less willing to take a chance on late blossoming high school quarterbacks since they know they will have alternatives in the marketplace come December.
“Unless it’s a five-star, he-can-play-right-away type of talent or sit for a fall and be ready to go the next year, how many of (the top programs) really are gonna be able to take and develop guys that might be multi-year, longer term, long-range, high-ceiling prospects versus living in the portal?” Elite 11 president Brian Stumpf said. “They’re not gonna really be able to have that five- or six-game trial and error period anymore.”
It will take time to see how all of this player mobility affects college football’s capacity to produce quarterbacks who can play in the NFL. Although there is a lot of hope for the QB class of 2022 that will be selected later this month, there is already a lot of negativity regarding the class of 2021. Is that merely a passing blip or a portent of things to come?
Quarterback schemes have never been solid, at best.
Before JT Daniels left for the NFL and was replaced by Young, the quarterback position at USC was meant to be held by Daniels for three seasons. Daniels joined the Trojans at the start of his freshman year, tore his ACL in the first game of his second year, and never returned to the field for USC. Three weeks later, Young turned pro and went on to win an Alabama Heisman Trophy.
It is nearly hard to develop a plan at quarterback for more than a year.
Perhaps you should divide up the quarterback commitments every other year and hope that the younger quarterback stays if he does not win a game. Perhaps you select a quarterback each year, but it feels like you are almost certain to lose someone.
“At the end of the day, you don’t know who exactly is going to be in there,” Riley said. “There’s never that sense of, ‘Alright, well we’ve kind’ve got our room set.’ You just never know.”
A coach’s only action is to refrain from making any commitments.
“I think you can (keep a quarterback for a few years) if you recruit the right guy, you don’t trick him, you’re just honest with him and you explain the way it is,” Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham said. “Is it a guarantee that happens? No. There’s no guarantee it’s going to go how either of y’all think it’s going to go. That’s the crazy part about it. Nobody truly knows how it’s going to play out.
“The only promise you make is you’re going to do whatever you can to make them successful and if it works out then great, and if it doesn’t then you’ve got to respect that.”
Finding quarterbacks like Miller Moss at USC, who are patient when things do not go their way early in their careers, is becoming more important, according to Riley.
Moss enrolled at USC with Jaxson Dart in the Class of 2021, ranking among the top 100 national recruits. When Williams came, he stayed, and the previous season, he outperformed five-star rookie Nelson for the backup position. Moss is set to start for the Trojans in his upcoming fourth season.
Moss might follow Garrett Nussmeier at LSU and Beck at Georgia in becoming starting quarterbacks at illustrious schools after spending several seasons on the bench. Despite changes in their respective programs’ head coaches, Moss and Nussmeier remained.
And one of the main causes of the chaos is this constant turning of the coaching wheel. The quarterbacks took off after Riley departed Oklahoma. Both of the program’s gifted quarterbacks, Aidan Chiles and DJ Uiagalelei, went after Jonathan Smith left Oregon State for Michigan State.
“You can’t even count on the coaches you’re being recruited by,” Sayin’s mother, Karen, said. “I don’t even know in the future. I think it’s going to get harder and harder.”
As soon as Saban declared his retirement, Sayin had an idea. He had given Ohio State serious consideration after high school and knew a great deal about Bill O’Brien, the new offensive coordinator for the Buckeyes, who had been the offensive coordinator at Alabama when he committed to the Crimson Tide in November 2022.
Thus, Sayin chose to enroll at Ohio State despite the fact that the Buckeyes had Air Noland, another five-star quarterback in their 2024 recruiting class, and despite O’Brien’s declaration that he might look for a head coaching position.
“Granted Air was at Ohio State, but he (Julian) really had to just look out for himself,” Karen Sayin said. “It was a business decision and it was like, ‘Where can I get developed? I think I can compete anywhere.’”
And you know who will not be Ohio State’s offensive coordinator under him? Within two and a half weeks after Sayin committed to the Buckeyes, O’Brien was named head coach of Boston College.
The transfer gateway has a feature similar to musical chairs. There are only so many places that can fulfill every requirement, thus the longer a quarterback holds off on making a move, the less spaces that become accessible.
“You’re going to put yourself in a position where you’re like, ‘Geez, Ohio State’s not available anymore. Nebraska’s not available anymore. Michigan’s not available anymore,’” Hernandez said. “Guess what? These Group of 5 schools now are going to end up benefiting from that.”
Dillingham’s prediction that “there is going to be more talented quarterbacks playing in college football than there is ever been” is supported by that assertion.
Put another way, quarterbacks are motivated to play.
In the 2023 recruiting cycle, Nelson was a five-star talent who practically every FBS club would have taken a look at. However, Nelson decided to transfer after just one season with the Trojans after USC made a pass at former Kansas State quarterback Will Howard during the December portal window.
Ultimately, Nelson arrived at Boise State because the market was not as strong as many had anticipated for a variety of reasons. Experienced quarterbacks who competed at the FCS level, like Max Brosmer of New Hampshire, or for a G5 college, like DeQuan Finn of Toledo, went on to play for power-conference programs at Baylor and Minnesota, respectively.
The market has spoken, and an experienced player is worth more than someone who may have been gifted in high school but has not demonstrated it in college, at least at the top levels of the sport.
“That other guy … He’s done it with the live bullets whizzing by,” Hernandez said. “So he has that film. Why wouldn’t (a program) go that route?”
The Group of 5 programs that train these quarterbacks find it difficult when their players end up at prestigious universities.
Furthermore, even though there will be more quarterbacks at G5s who are like Nelson and Ty Thompson, a top-50 recruit in the 2021 cycle who transferred to Tulane after spending three years at Oregon, those schools will have to contend with the perception held by many prospects that they are simply playing junior college football at a higher level: perform well, get tape, and then transfer to a bigger school.
“That’s exactly what it is,” said one FBS head coach who spent some time at the G5 level recently. “You have guys looking at that as a business decision. What’s most important is playing young so you can get big money while you’re still in school. If you don’t get huge money coming in the front door or if you’re not the guy early wherever you are, then you have to shift and, ‘OK, where can I go play right now?’”
It is conceivable that some programs will accept that and include it into their pitch. The appeal is undeniable, even though there may be some cultural challenges and a lot of upheaval to deal with.
It is just one additional element in a world that is changing significantly in tandem with the sport.
“Whether you’re talking about the portal or performance — a lot of it comes down to the belief in themselves and just their inner confidence that they believe when that opportunity presents itself that they’re good enough to go seize it,” Riley said. “I think this process in some ways reveals that maybe even more than before.”
— Grace Raynor contributed to this story.
Editor’s note: This article is a part of a series that looks at NIL, the transfer portal, and how they affect collegiate athletics. April 16–30 is when the spring football transfer site is open. Here are all of the transfer portal stories.
(Top photo of Malachi Nelson: Darren Yamashita / USA Today)