Shedeur Sanders Leads 2025 NFL Draft Predictions, But Can Arch Manning Catch Up?
Following the Chicago Bears’ 2024 NFL Draft selection of USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the first overall choice, an American sportsbook made the decision to provide a betting market for the top pick in the following year.
Although most bettors do not particularly enjoy the thought of locking their money up in a low-limit market for a full year, I went ahead and texted a friend of mine who works as a professional betor and resides in Las Vegas.
“Who’s the favorite?” I asked.
“It’s got to be Quinn Ewers,” the bettor replied.
Great guess. Once the 21-year-old quarterback announced he was returning to Texas after the Longhorns finished 12-2 with a College Football Playoff appearance, you knew he would be in the mix to go first overall.
DraftKings Sportsbook opened Ewers at 3-1, the second favorite.
“There’s somebody shorter than 3-1?!” the bettor responded.
No more than 15 seconds after I informed him that Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders was the even-money (+100) favorite to be taken first overall in 2025, my phone started doing vibrational circles on the table.
Buzz. Buzz. Buzz.
“Hello.”
“Is there a ‘No’ price?” he quickly inquired.
It’s funny how the betting mind works. This fella couldn’t have been any less interested in next year’s No. 1 pick market, but once I told him about the head-scratching favorite at a questionable price, his wheels spun out.
“Sanders has a ton of upside and football is in his blood,” the bettor continued. “I thought he played pretty well behind one of the worst [offensive] lines in football. Only three interceptions over 400 throws was impressive, too.
Coincidentally, Sanders was still set as the favorite at 3-1 when DraftKings reopened the market early on Monday morning after taking it offline over the weekend.
Ewers and Georgia quarterback Carson Beck are now 5-1.
No. 1 pick odds for 2025 NFL Draft at DraftKings Sportsbook*
Shedeur Sanders, Colorado: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)
Carson Beck, Georgia: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)
Quinn Ewers, Texas: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)
James Pearce Jr., Tennessee: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Cameron Ward, Miami: +1700 (bet $10 to win $180 total)
Jalen Milroe, Alabama: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Drew Allar, Penn State: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Patrick Payton, Florida State: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Mykel Williams, Georgia: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Conner Weigman, Texas A&M: +2800 (bet $10 to win $290 total)
*odds as of 4/30/2024
The highest climber thus far is Tennessee edge rusher James Pearce Jr., who went from 20-1 to 10-1 in a matter of days. The largest faller, going from 8-1 to 25-1, is Penn State quarterback Drew Allar.
It’s tough to bet any of the favorites at this point in time.
While we were talking about potential No. 1 picks in the future, I thought it would be interesting to see who the oddsmakers could want to go first overall in 2026. Of course, a lot can change in the next two years.
“It all starts with Arch Manning,” the bettor said. “That’s the guy you play defense against if you’re booking bets. Even with the possibility that he doesn’t come out, you don’t want to get stuck. Why risk it?
“Peyton went No. 1, Eli went No. 1 and those two combined to win four Super Bowls. Whenever Arch Manning decides to declare for the draft, odds are very good he’s going to be the first pick. There’s no need to deal him at a bloated price.
“I wouldn’t want any liability on Arch.”
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He’ll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.