Mandel’s Mailbag: Decoding the Super League, QB Battles, and New Big Ten Dreams

Salutations, football fans. This is my first mailbag since writing a piece with Andrew Marchant last week about a group of sports executives proposing an 80-team college football “Super League.” We will get into some pertinent spring football issues this week.

When contemplating potential new or old conferences within the framework of a Super League, many fans belonging to a specific generation experience a sense of nostalgia. I am aware of this since I also long for some of these former rivalries. But once this season starts and some of these amazing games (Ohio State in Eugene, Georgia in Austin, etc.) are on TV, it is feasible that fans will not be as excited to go back to the days of seeing Ohio State play teams like Purdue ten times a year. It would appear that FOX and ESPN would be opposed to the revival of some of these previous conferences. What is your emotional state? — Erik W.

I know you had to use someone as an example, but it seems harsh for it to be Purdue just days after that school’s moment in the basketball sun. Don’t let Zach Edey see this, he’ll swat my laptop away.

I’m with you to some extent. This season is going to blow peoples’ minds in terms of the week-in, week-out TV lineup. The kind of marquee intersectional matchups we’d only get a few times a year, mostly in the first few weeks of the season, will be season-long, sometimes multiple times per week. On Oct. 12 alone, we’ll have Ohio State-Oregon, Penn State–USC and Oklahoma–Texas as an SEC game. I can’t imagine many people will bemoan realignment that afternoon/evening.

However, it is not as though USC, Penn State, Oregon, Washington, and Ohio State and Michigan will be the only teams they play. There are still a ton of games left against teams like Minnesota, Indiana, Maryland, Rutgers, etc. And as of right now, at least, they still have those two or three games remaining against Marshall, Western Michigan, Akron, and the Buckeyes this season. The primary reason I have always believed college football will eventually become a product similar to the Premier League is because, given how much the networks currently pay those two conferences, you would expect they would pay a lot more if each club received ten major games annually as opposed to just five.

The College Sports Tomorrow concept we reported on last week surprised people with how inclusive it was. That it’s 80 schools, not 40. Hence, the appeal of, for example, getting the original Pac-10 back together in one division or restoring the old Big East by grouping schools now spread out over four conferences.

Schedules should not be all that different from what they are currently if the format was to play nine games versus your division, two from the other “strong” divisions, and maybe one G5. Additionally, the network partners (let us say ESPN and Fox) would have little trouble selecting a few notable games to air in each TV window because they would all be grouped under one roof. In essence, it is the NFL model.

But you’re right about one thing: The TV networks don’t want this. It behooves Fox to have an 18-team Big Ten with a bunch of monster brands and ESPN a 16-team SEC with a whole bunch of blue bloods. They get more bang for their buck in that model than they would in a Super League package where they’d have to pay more to get some, but not all of those matchups, while also obligated to air just as many Georgia Tech–Virginia and Houston–Texas Tech games.

The group’s idea is therefore not even close to being implemented. The whole idea is that if all of the TV rights were combined and sold as one package, more money could be made. However, the networks already control all of the rights through at least the early 2030s, so they have no incentive to sell them back. How the group would back out of those agreements is unknown.

It was shocking to hear that John Calipari was moving to Arkansas. Is there a better connection, in your opinion, or was Lincoln Riley’s move from Oklahoma to USC the college football equivalent? — Timothy J.

Is I the only one who did not find it all shocking? I knew he would bolt from Kentucky as soon as they lost to Oakland. He lost all of his followers. True, I had assumed it would be for Michigan rather than Arkansas, but Arkansas is not some remote basketball wasteland. In 2021 and 2022, the Razorbacks advanced to the Elite 8, and in 2023, they reached the Sweet 16. However, Cal’s decision to play the antagonist and come back to Rupp as the head coach of the other team seems perfectly in character.

Riley was even more stunning since he was trading one blue blood for another while still at the top of his game. As a coach, Calipari has been declining over the last four years or so. In 2019, he was the last to finish the tournament after the first weekend. A better comparison would be Jimbo Fisher from Florida State, where he had won a national championship four years prior, and going to Texas A&M, which has not won a national championship since 1939 but welcomed him with open arms.

The Athletic’s Dana O’Neil wrote a story in December 20First off, why would you select a starter for the spring game as a head coach in the modern era? Now that players can transfer as many times as they like and start playing right away, the backup is almost a given to reach the gateway. It would be better for coaches to continue the competition into August.22 asking the question, “Is John Calipari now the Jimbo Fisher of college basketball?” The consensus was he was still recruiting great players but was struggling to figure out an offensive identity. Sound familiar?

If the comparison is accurate, Calipari will arrive in Fayetteville and start drawing in recruits right away. He might even have a fantastic season in his first few years to raise everyone’s expectations, but he would struggle after that and end up a highly wealthy but jobless man.

After the spring, which teams will still be trying to secure a starting quarterback? Through the transfer portal or an exciting camp battle. — Steve B. from Ohio’s Columbus

First, if you’re a head coach today, why would you name a starter in the spring? The backup is all but guaranteed to enter the portal, especially now that players can transfer as many times as they want and play immediately. Coaches are better off extending the competition into August.

But there are several I expect will truly be unsettled come the end of April.

Now that Steve is in Columbus, let us talk about Ohio State first. Although it was expected that Kansas State transfer Will Howard, a 27-game starter in his career, would take over, Devin Brown—who was injured early in his Cotton Bowl debut last year—is keeping things intriguing. Although Howard, a dual-threat talent who looks like he would fit right in with Chip Kelly’s offense, is still the favorite, I would not be shocked if Ryan Day named a starter before August.

I have no idea who Michigan’s next starter will be as I head north to Ann Arbor. The most “seasoned” player is Alex Orji, but Michigan has only utilized him as a runner and only in situational packages. Another contender is Jayden Denegal, a classmate. Jack Tuttle, a senior in his seventh year, feels like an insurance policy. It is possible that Sherrone Moore goes out and acquires a quarterback through the portal, or that one or more of the younger players use the gateway.

Because to Miller Moss’ unexpected six touchdowns versus Louisville in the Holiday Bowl, USC is a fascinating team. That might have deterred any prominent transfers. Riley did, however, land Jayden Maiava of UNLV, who is currently the Mountain West Freshman of the Year. Because he has been in the system longer than Moss, he has a significant advantage, but Maiava is an athletic competitor as well.

Less well known, but intriguing to me is Arkansas, which is taking KJ Jefferson’s spot after three years as starter. Sam Pittman signed dual-threat player Taylen Green from Boise State. Green led the Broncos to a 10-win season in 2022 and a conference title the previous season, but he was inconsistent in his two seasons there. He is up against fifth-year player Jacolby Criswell, who finished last season at Jefferson and UNC after waiting his turn behind Sam Howell and Drake Maye.

Note: Although Oregon has been listed in lists similar to this by several outlets, I do not see a situation in which UCLA transfer Dante Moore defeats Oklahoma transfer Dillon Gabriel. Presumably, Moore is being prepared for 2025.

I only follow college football and college women’s basketball. What am I supposed to do with myself until the end of August? — Joshua S.

Plus, “Curb Your Enthusiasm” is over for good. These are tough times for all of us.

However, I will share with you a small secret that I have learned over the last several years: College baseball is fantastic! College baseball was never my thing, but softball is a lot of fun, moves quickly, and has amazing pitchers. Every out is celebrated by the players as though they have just won the World Series. Try it out.

How are the former Pac-12 teams going to do in the Big Ten? New coaches for a couple of teams and a new style. Competitive in the first two years? — Brandon M.

I don’t know how you predict anything more than a year out in this sport anymore. There are too many changes from one offseason to the next.

Oregon is the most positioned of the four for quick success. Not only does it have coaching continuity with Dan Lanning, but also with the majority of his staff. The Ducks have a lot of skill players, a more established NIL funnel than any other Big Ten school, a proven quarterback in Gabriel despite his recent arrival to the program, and a well-stocked offensive line, which is crucial in that conference. If Oregon does not compete for the title this year or the next, it would be disappointing.

If Washington hadn’t just lost everybody from its national title game run, it’d be the easy pick No. 2. Instead I’ll give a slight nod to USC.

Riley has hired a new defensive staff, something that everyone had been waiting for, therefore I never worry about his offense. Riley persuaded North Dakota State head coach Matt Entz to take over as his linebackers coach after defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn moved across town from UCLA. Recently, there has been a noticeable increase in USC’s recruitment; the school presently boasts the nation’s fifth-best class, led by five-star Georgia defensive lineman Justus Terry. Despite the difficult schedule in 2024, USC should be able to challenge for the championship in 2025.

From Kalen DeBoer on down, Washington’s stellar 2022–23 run was genuinely lost. Not simply those outstanding receivers, Michael Penix Jr. A large portion of the offensive line has never participated in a college football play. Two of the defense’s starters return. Year 1 might be difficult, but Jedd Fisch shown at Arizona that he can rapidly establish a program, so maybe by Year 2, UW will be back in the running for the playoffs.

In conclusion, I have little to say about UCLA. Are not the Bruins’ uniforms still adorable? Although I do not anticipate DeShaun Foster to perform miracles, I think his hiring is great. At most, UCLA will be a 4–8 club in 2024. After that, we’ll just have to wait and see where the program stands at this point the next season. In the best-case scenario, though, the Bruins might move up into the conference’s current Minnesota, Illinois, and Nebraska tier.

I am curious about the complaints we will have in December regarding the 12-team College Football Playoff, since March Madness is still fresh in our memories and we recall the complaints made regarding judgments made by the committee (Indiana State) even in a 68-team tournament. What impression do you believe the four losers of the power-conference championship games will leave on the selection committee? Every participant will have the two best records in their conferences if there are no divisions. Do you believe a team’s chances of getting into the playoffs will be considerably harmed by a loss in the conference championship game? — Hoover, Alabama’s David T.

I can’t imagine there will be many scenarios where the second-best team in one of the major conferences could lose its championship game and fall behind a team that didn’t play. Only twice in 10 years of the four-team format did a conference title-game loser fall out of the top four — Wisconsin in 2017 and USC in 2022. Those teams still would have been safely in a 12-team field.

More generally, 2014 saw Georgia Tech (10-3) lose in the ACC title game and drop from No. 11 to No. 12, which would have theoretically knocked it out of the running (No. 20 Boise State was the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion). However, it is unclear how the committee would have handled the situation if there had been actual stakes. After losing 38-7 against Utah in 2021, Oregon (10-3) dropped from 10th to 14th place. It probably would require such a result.

However, the choices in this new system will not be the only topic of controversy. I recently met with a coach who said that under the new structure, losing your conference championship game is preferable to finishing third in the SEC. In either case, you are playing in the middle of December for a first-round match, but the third-place team gets an extra week off. The matchup between Nos. 8 and No. 9, which decides whether you get a home or away game, will likely be the most controversial of all. And you just know that there’s going to be a lot of splitting hairs between 10-2 teams with similar resumes.

How good of a college tight end would Edey be? Would he not be a weapon in the red zone? — Eric W.

Well said. The “50-50” jump ball to Edey in the end zone seems more like a “95-5,” in my opinion. He might not make a terrific blocker, though. In a three-point stance, he would be so high off the ground that the approaching blitzer might just be able to sneak underneath him.

Football from the ACC was broadcast on The CW last season. Rumor has it that it might broadcast Pac-2 games this autumn. How did previous year’s games fare? Does that suit the Pac-2 well? Brad from Seattle

Based on reliable data from Sports Media Watch, those matches had an average viewership of about 500,000, which is not particularly high nor low. It largely depends on the caliber of the teams, just like any TV package. Over a million people watched Florida State-North Alabama, the late-season match in which Jordan Travis shattered his leg. However, there were a lot more Wake Forest-Syracuse-style games with attendance under 300,000.

Considering the most practical choices (that is, not ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, or ESPN), the CW is most likely on par with Oregon State and Wazzu’s chances of landing. Despite the ridicule directed at it, the network is accessible over the air and can be found in almost every TV home in the United States. Plus, there probably will be respectable time slots. That is preferable than the game airing at 10:30 p.m. ET on FS1 or CBS Sports Network, which is probably what will happen when those schools play at Mountain West stadiums.

As a point of comparison, on Oct. 21 last season, a Virginia-North Carolina game that kicked off at 6:30 p.m. ET on the CW fared nearly as well (788,000) as a UCLA-Stanford game in the 10:30 p.m. ET ESPN slot (852,000).

Notwithstanding their best efforts to argue otherwise, Oregon State and Washington State are now Group of 5 programs, and their TV windows and schedules will reflect this. However, the CW would at least get a few good games: Texas Tech in Pullman, Oregon, Purdue, and Wazzu are playing in Corvallis. The question now is whether the Pac-2 is good enough to draw attention on its own.

How do coaches figure out whether their team had a good spring scrimmage? If one side is successful, then the other side is unsuccessful. Does it come down to throwing results out the window and evaluating the All-22 play-by-play and grading each player’s technique?  Shane B.

Compared to those of us watching on TV or in the stadium, the coaches are undoubtedly more skilled at it. I watch a lot of spring games, and usually the only thing I can learn is how terrific the quarterback looks. Alternatively, a highlight-worthy play by a defensive back or receiver might be seen.

But the coaches, who know what play was called on each snap, can watch the tape and see which individuals did their jobs well and which ones screwed up. They’re also seeing up and close in practice who is moving well, who is reacting too slowly, etc.

Scrimmages are mostly a chance for certain guys to “pop.” It is difficult for the average layman to determine how much of a defensive lineman’s rush into the backfield was due to him and how much was due to subpar blocking by the offensive line. However, the athlete still made a significant play, so that is something. I first became aware of players like Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Trevor Lawrence, Garrett Wilson, Malik Hooker, Kool Aid McKinstry, and others during the spring games.

This coming Saturday, the Ohio State spring game will air on Fox at noon ET, while Alabama’s will air on ESPN at 4 p.m.This signals the official start of the 2024 college football season.

Hopefully, I do better on my spring football bracket than I did on my basketball one.

(Top photo: Gaelen Morse / Getty Images)