The NBA’s Big Question: Is There Still Room for Behemoth Centers Like Edey and Clingan
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During Marc Gasol’s jersey retirement this past weekend, I conversed with former Memphis Grizzlies players, and the inevitable conversation turned to how much the NBA has changed in the last twelve years or so. The post-heavy, ponderous “Grit N Grind” style of those Memphis teams is hardly even an option in today’s game. This is due to both the defensive expectations that the revolution has placed on the largest players in the league as well as the 3-point explosion.
The goal of the game is still the same, and the rules have not changed as much as you may expect, but the methods and strategies for getting there have altered dramatically. Whatever you want to call it—pace-and-space, seven seconds or fewer, etc.—spreading the floor and making threes has altered how teams play the game.
Specifically, it has altered the center location significantly. Think about the 2006–07 season, for example. Next, the 7-foot-6 Yao Ming, whose Houston Rockets were sixth in the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency, averaged 25 points per game and was selected to the Second Team All-NBA. Making him defend Carlos Boozer’s free-throw line jumpers was the strategic move that helped the other team defeat him in the playoffs that year.
Yao was not alone back then; the NBA was home to many slow, lumbering giants, like the 7-3 Zydrunas Ilgauskas of Cleveland, the 280-pound one-hand shot-faker Al Jefferson of Boston, the massive Eddy Curry of New York (who played 2,849 minutes!) and the 7-foot, 270-pound teenage sensation Andrew Bynum of the Los Angeles Lakers.
Since then, the gigantic centers’ ranks have been slowly decimated by the league’s constant creep to the perimeter and the ensuing demand that all five players be able to guard the perimeter. Sure, we still have plenty of big players, such as 7-4 Victor Wembanyama and 7-3 Kristaps Porziņģis, but these men are more like guards on steroids than the human sleds of old.
Heavyweights have had to adapt to stay ahead of the curve, to the extent that they still exist. It is a small group now, largely made up of guys with exceptional skill. A center like Nikola Jokić, a jump-shooting, foul-drawing scoring machine like Joel Embiid, a 3-point shooter and drop-coverage expert like Brook Lopez, and nearly no one else can play like them. Of the remaining players in the league, only Jusuf Nurkić, Boban Marjanović, Andre Drummond, and, on certain days, Zion Williamson have bodies that resemble those from a 2007 game.
A succession of tall, slender centers like Wemby, the Zinger, and Chet Holmgren, as well as smaller, quicker centers like 6-9 Bam Adebayo and Atlanta’s 6-10 Clint Capela and 6-8 Onyeka Okongwu, have replaced them. Up-gauged former power forwards like Al Horford have also replaced them. The majority of 7-footers, including as Deandre Ayton, Jarrett Allen, Cody Zeller, and Ivica Zubac, have peaked between 240 and 250 pounds. For larger players, the game is simply more difficult, unless they possess exceptional skill and have the same level of feel as Jokić, Embiid, and Lopez.
This brings us to Monday night’s men’s NCAA Tournament final match between the two big man sensations and the NBA Draft of this year. Those two players—Zach Edey of Purdue and Donovan Clingan of Connecticut—are among the most dominant in recent college history.
There are many ways to observe this, such as, umm, watching the games, but one simple method to quickly grasp their domination is the fact that they lead and trail in college basketball’s point differential (PER), with Edey’s incredible 39.7 ranking first in the NCAA and Clingan’s 35.7 placing second. With the exception of Edey’s 40.2 in 2022–2023—those are the two highest scores by any NCAA player since Williamson’s 40.8 in 2018–19 at Duke.
Their sheer bulk is the other noteworthy statistic for these two gentlemen. Not only are they tall, but they also have large frames and thick calves. Clingan weighs 7-2 and is 300 pounds, whereas Edey is 7-4.
And that brings us to the heart of the matter: we have already seen this movie with dinosaur big men who were able to dominate college basketball while hardly ever leaving the paint on defense, such as Luka Garza of Iowa and Adama Sanogo of Connecticut. At the NBA level, they are forced to cover the perimeter by the rules of the game, so that is not an option. (Aside: International rules allow big men to stay in the paint, which is why Edey is a little-used weapon for Team Canada and why Clingan’s Italian heritage is a hot topic abroad.)
The one thing you can see in the tape for Edey and Clingan is that, if you are going to allow them to just hang out in the paint on defense, you might as well not bother showing up at all. It’s just too easy for them.
Here is a snippet of UConn’s incredible 30-0 run in the Elite Eight game versus Illinois. Clingan is essentially playing Nerf hoops against his younger sibling as long as he is in the paint.
Surprisingly, in that game, the Illini shot 0 of 19 on shots that Clingan contested. They did not have the staff to stretch him out to the 3-point line, despite their occasional attempts to do so.
In the Final Four on Saturday, Alabama put forth a more earnest effort as the mobile 6-10 Grant Nelson of the Crimson Tide targeted him. Nelson finished with 19 points and even uncorked an incredible “dunk” over Clingan that was more like a throw-in. A minute later, though, he attacked Clingan off the dribble in space and used some wiggle and a Euro stride to get to the rim cleanly. That play was definitely more applicable to the NBA level.
Even yet, Clingan is the more athletic and nimble of the two, demonstrating greater ability to run the floor, step out on the perimeter, and cover smaller players off the dribble. That was especially evident during his incredible eight-block tournament performance against Northwestern, when he seamlessly transitioned to guard play. Here’s an example of his work during the Illinois game; he will need to do the same against faster, more skilled NBA players who have more room and (usually) better systems. When Terrance Shannon starts his move, Clingan is already at the 3-point line. He follows Shannon’s inside-out motion and slides his feet to meet Shannon at the rim before blocking the shot.
On Saturday, Donovan Clingan was given credit for five blocks.
This was not one of the five
What are our thoughts? Did the statisticians overlook this one? tweet.com/mzJMJ1fPZv
— Ryan Cassidy (@ryancassidycbb) April 2, 2024
Edey, on the other hand, fits into an even more extreme archetype: he is bigger, slower, and more reliant on playing in a system that favors post-friendly offense and drop coverage on defense.
Nevertheless, there are even more similarities to Yao here. Similar to Yao, Edey shoots well from close range and has a high release, which makes his post-ups easy baskets in college. He has good mechanics and a career shooting percentage of 70.6 percent from the free-throw line, but he could get more arc on it. He could likely increase his range as well. In addition, he is improved at reading situations and getting the ball to the appropriate place as opponents have grown bolder about doubling him.
Scouts are not up at night worrying about offense because of this. He will need to adapt a little bit to play in more pick-and-roll situations rather than strictly organized post-ups. Take a look at this incredible statistic: He has more post-ups than any player in the NBA this year in just 37 collegiate games.
Though he has lightning hops, his size alone makes him a clear threat on the lob, and his combination of strength, ability, and coordination makes him an outstanding finisher.
In a defensive manner? That is the whole fight. Nor is this always a yes-or-no proposition. This is on different levels.
There are a few concerning aspects of Edey’s statistical profile. To start, during the season, he only had 11 steals, or roughly 0.5 per 100 possessions. Even for a center, that is an incredibly low percentage in a category where centers have historically served as indicators for the next level, even though 7-4 players are not supposed to be ball-hawk thieves.
Eden has also utilized his size to defend the rim in a far different way than Clingan, choosing to take extreme precautions to minimize risk and put avoiding foul trouble first. Like Clingan, Edey has committed more fouls this season than blocks; the difference is that Clingan is almost twice as likely to commit a foul per possession. Edey’s block rate of 4.0 per 100 possessions may seem modest given his size, but if he is not a lock to start at the next level, he may be able to increase it significantly.
The opponent will attempt to isolate Edey in space and use superior speed against his stature in every game he participates in. (He will be susceptible to change as well.) But that does not make him any different from the majority of centers that play in an NBA game on any given night.
So let us return to the topic of vulnerability degrees. Saying that defensive mobility problems will keep Edey from developing into a star at the next level—someone who could be worth a top-five pick—is one thing. But given his attacking productivity, it is quite another to argue the problem would be so serious that it would make him unplayable.
Many big men function in the middle of the two extremes, particularly during the regular season when most teams use drop coverage on a fairly regular basis. The value proposition of selecting one with a high lottery choice may be limited if Edey and Clingan are similar to the other big men who are frequently dragged off the floor during the postseason. However, this does not make them undraftable. At a certain point in the draft, the benefits of having a potential 20-point scorer to put into the frontcourt outweigh the worry that Edey would be benched during a playoff series.
Naturally, we also can not make this too simplistic. Not merely Clingan’s and Edey’s stature and mobility affect their chances of making it to the professional ranks. Clingan’s medical report will be significant because, among other things, he has missed time due to multiple foot issues. Additionally, considering that nearly every talented center of late has been selected by the age of 20, Edey’s decision to enter the league this autumn at the age of 22 raises a few eyebrows.
Ultimately, though, the reason to ponder returns to the Grit N Grind conversation from earlier. To be clear, Edey and Clingan are both extremely gifted, which gives them a fantastic chance. But both players are about to experience a drastic shift in circumstances: they will be moving from a college basketball environment that is extremely supportive of their player archetype to an NBA environment that could not be more antagonistic to it. They are going to tack into the wind, but for the moment they have a strong breeze at their backs.
Consequently, their degree of success in the NBA given their stature serves as a reliable indicator of how unwelcoming the present NBA is to large, bulky centers. Who else could possibly make it at this size if they can not after destroying the NCAA the previous two seasons?
(Top photos of Donovan Clingan and Zach Edey: Winslow Townson, Robert Deutsch / USA Today)