Expert Picks Revealed: UConn Favored Over Purdue in National Championship Showdown
A new national champion will be announced on Monday night, or perhaps the winner from last year will be crowned once more.
In the national championship game, the Purdue Boilermakers will square off against the reigning champion UConn Huskies, who will want to win again.
Although Purdue and Zach Edey, who was just awarded the Naismith Men’s College Player of the Year for a second straight year, will try to play spoiler, the Huskies are still the favorite at sportsbooks across the country.
Jason McIntyre, a betting analyst for FOX Sports, has as much interest in the competition as, well, anybody.
McIntyre then shares his prediction for the season finale on Monday night:
Purdue +765 in early February and UConn +348 just before the tournament are my tiny futures, but I will still bet on the game because I think UConn is the favorite.
As soon as the line appeared, I took a juiced -5(-121). At six, I do not mind it. Sure, I saw that KenPom only shows the UConn game 75-72, but the figures do not really convey how dominant the Huskies are.
Since UNLV in the early 1990s, this collegiate basketball team has been the most dominant.
Think about this: despite shooting 47% from three in the Final Four, Alabama—the nation’s second-best offensive team—was unable to cover the spread against UConn.
Alabama was unable to cover a double-digit spread despite playing an A game and losing by a score of 14.
Purdue is the second-best 3-point shooting team in the nation, but is that because of its talented players or because Edey, who is 7 feet 4 inches tall, helps the team rank sixth in offensive rebounds and the Boilers are making the most of second and third chance opportunities? Or is it that teams must select their poison from the perimeter and double Edey?
Donovan Clingan of UConn is 7 feet 2 inches tall and should be able to match Edey’s size inside. With the exception of Edey vs. Clingan, Purdue is now at a height disadvantage at every position and the shooters are now hugging. And last weekend, we witnessed the outcome of that scenario—a coin toss against Tennessee.
In order to advance, Edey had to play 39 minutes, score 40 points, grab 16 rebounds, and make 14 free throws. Purdue made 3-of-15 on threes in that victory.
On the offensive end, the Huskies simply possess too many weapons, and on defense, UConn ought to win back-to-back games provided Clingan stays out of serious foul trouble.
I also incline somewhat in favor of the Under. It may be a long night for the Boilers if Purdue commits 16 turnovers, like it did against NC State’s formidable defense.
PICK: UConn (-5) to win by more than 5 points
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.