The Road to Victory: UConn’s Title Defense Challenged by Purdue – Expert Picks and Predictions for the NCAA Championship Game
The two top teams in college basketball compete for a national championship as the season comes to a close. For the first time in the history of the NCAA Tournament, two No. 1 seeds will square off in the championship game when UConn takes on Purdue. The Huskies, who have had a stellar two years, are the defending champions. Zach Edey, the reigning player of the year, is the opponent Purdue hopes to defeat on the way to its first championship. The game takes place in Phoenix on Monday night, and UConn is favored to win by a small margin.
KenPom’s rankings of the two most effective teams in the league this season both have lineups that are veteran-heavy and balanced. In terms of offensive efficiency, UConn and Purdue rank first and third, respectively. Two of the top-12 defenses highlight outstanding offensive. However, the main focus will be on a tremendous inside matchup. Both UConn’s 7-foot-2 predicted NBA Lottery pick Donovan Clingan and the 7-foot-4 Edey are powerful players who can disrupt any possession.
Edey is averaging 28 points and 15.4 rebounds per game on 65 percent shooting in tournament play. He is unstoppable. Clingan is a respectable double-double threat (16.2 points, nine rebounds, and 3.6 blocks per game in the Tournament), even though he is not as effective offensively as his rival. He is among the top 10 in the nation in block percentage this season (11.8 percent, ranking seventh nationally).
UConn believes Clingan, playing as a lone defender with sporadic assistance, can slow Edey. Clingan has only managed to play for 30 minutes this season, so he will probably need to push for more than that. Over the past three games, Edey has only missed three minutes out of a possible 120.
UConn has an advantage outside of the center matchup thanks to scoring balance. The five Husky starters have double-digit scoring averages. Alex Karaban and Cam Spencer are two competent perimeter scorers that surround All-American floor general Tristen Newton. Stephon Castle, a developing freshman, had a great tournament, capping it off with a career-high 21 points in the semifinal victory over Alabama.
The Boilermakers need to limit turnovers and maintain a steady perimeter shooting game after they have established Edey. Purdue, who leads the nation in 3-point percentage (40.6%), made 10 threes in their semifinal victory over NC State. The 16 turnovers that allowed the Wolfpack to hang around in the second half must be corrected by the Boilermakers. In order to counterbalance point guard Braden Smith’s 1-for-9 shooting performance and five turnovers, Lance Jones and Fletcher Loyer performed well.
What: National championship game
Tipoff time: 9:20 p.m. ET Monday
TV: TBS
Location: Glendale, Ariz.
UConn vs. Purdue odds
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Expert picks
UConn vs. Purdue model projection
Our “numbers guy,” Austin Mock, projects the results of every game in the tournament using sophisticated statistical models and simulations. Here are Austin’s predictions for the national championship game based on one million simulations of the men’s 2024 NCAA Tournament:
Projected final score: UConn 75.3, Purdue 68.8 (UConn by 6.5, point total: 144)
Players to watch
UConn
- Graduate guard Tristen Newton made the first team of the Big East.
- Graduate guard Cam Spencer made the first team of the Big East.
- Honorable mention All-Big East center Donovan Clingan
Purdue
- Junior center Zach Edey won Big Ten Player of the Year and made the first team. All-Big Ten defense squad as a whole
- Braden Smith, a sophomore guard, made the All-Big Ten first teams
(Photo of Zach Edey: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)